Now 59% of Australians expect 2021 will be ‘better’ than 2020, as Australia returns to normal
Of all Australians 59% now think 2021 will be ‘better’ than 2020 – the highest positive view on the year ahead since 2009 following the Global Financial Crisis, a special Roy Morgan survey conducted in November finds. A further 17% say 2021 will be ‘the same’, an all-time record low of 10% say 2021 will be ‘worse’ than 2020 and 14% don’t know.
Of all Australians 59% now think 2021 will be ‘better’ than 2020 – the highest positive view on the year ahead since 2009 following the Global Financial Crisis, a special Roy Morgan survey conducted in November finds. A further 17% say 2021 will be ‘the same’, an all-time record low of 10% say 2021 will be ‘worse’ than 2020 and 14% don’t know.
Australians are far more positive about 2021 than they were a year ago about 2020 when only 12% said 2020 would be ‘better’ than 2019 and a large 40% said the year ahead would be ‘worse’. This comes as little surprise as people hope for a return to normality after the Covid-19 pandemic.
This special Roy Morgan survey was conducted in November with a cross-section of 1,008 Australians aged 18+.
Do you think next year will be ‘Better’ or ‘Worse’ – long-term trend (1980-2020)
Source: Roy Morgan telephone, SMS and online surveys in Australia 1980-2020 with an average of 1,000 Australians aged 18+ interviewed each year. Question: “As far as you are concerned, do you think that 2021 will be better, worse, or the same as 2020?”
Analysis by Age & Gender – Next Year ‘Better’ or ‘Worse’
Source: This special Roy Morgan online survey was conducted in early mid-November with a cross-section of 1,008 Australians aged 18+.
More men (59%) than women (58%) expect 2021 will be ‘better’ than 2020, although there are also more men (12%) that say 2021 will be ‘worse’ than 2020 than women (8%).
Analysing by age group shows a change in the usual trend of younger people being more optimistic about the future when compared to older generations. 56% of 18-24 year olds expect 2021 will be ‘better’ than 2020 – this is the lowest figure amongst all age groups: 60% of 25-34yr olds, 57% of 35-49yr olds and 61% of those aged 50-64 say 2021 will be ‘better’ than 2020, with the latter group increasing a significant 33% points when compared to 28% a year ago.
|
Total Australia |
Gender |
Age |
|||||
|
Men |
Women |
18-24 |
25-34 |
35-49 |
50-64 |
||
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Better |
59 |
59 |
58 |
56 |
60 |
57 |
61 |
|
Same |
18 |
17 |
18 |
13 |
17 |
21 |
17 |
|
Worse |
10 |
12 |
8 |
6 |
12 |
10 |
9 |
|
Don’t know |
14 |
11 |
16 |
25 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
|
TOTAL |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
Analysis by States & Regions – Next Year ‘Better’ or ‘Worse’
Source: This special Roy Morgan online survey was conducted in early mid-November with a cross-section of 1,008 Australians aged 18+.
Victorians are the most positive about 2021
Analysing by State shows respondents in all States are more positive about 2021 compared to 2020 with clear majorities in every State expecting 2021 to be ‘better’ than 2020.
After an extensive lockdown, Victorians are the most optimistic about 2021 with 64% expecting 2021 to be ‘better’ than 2020 ahead 59% of people in New South Wales and Western Australians (57%). Queenslanders are the least optimistic with a slim majority of 52% expecting 2021 to be ‘better’ than 2020.
Respondents in Australia’s Capital Cities (60%) are slightly more positive about 2021 being ‘better’ than 2020 compared to those in Country Regions (56%).
|
States |
City/ Country |
|||||||
|
Total Australia |
NSW |
VIC |
QLD |
WA |
SA |
Capital |
Country |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Better |
59 |
59 |
64 |
52 |
57 |
56 |
60 |
56 |
|
Same |
18 |
17 |
15 |
20 |
22 |
16 |
17 |
19 |
|
Worse |
10 |
11 |
8 |
11 |
6 |
13 |
10 |
9 |
|
Don’t know |
14 |
13 |
13 |
17 |
14 |
15 |
13 |
16 |
|
TOTAL |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
Michele Levine, Chief Executive Officer, Roy Morgan, says:
“Australians will enter 2021 in a more positive frame of mind than a year ago with 59% expecting 2021 will be ‘better’ than 2020, a record increase of 47% points from a year ago. In late 2019 only 12% of Australians predicted 2020 would be ‘better’ than 2019 in what turned out to be a prescient forecast of the year we’ve all lived through.
“Thankfully only one-in-ten Australians (10%) expect 2021 will be ‘worse’ than 2020, which is well down on a year ago when 40% of respondents expected 2020 would be ‘worse’ than 2019. Consumer Confidence in 2020 has so far averaged only 95.8, its lowest yearly average since 1990.
“Somewhat surprisingly younger Australians are the least optimistic about 2021 with 56% of 18-24 years old expecting 2021 will be ‘better’ than 2020 while there is more optimism about the year ahead from older age groups including people aged 25-34 (60%), 35-49 (57%) and 50-64 (61%).
“The first half of 2021 is set to be dominated by Covid-19 discussions and returning to normality. The tourism industry will be wondering when international flights will be allowed to once again take place. A large majority of 91% of Australians either ‘Strongly Agree’ or ‘Agree’ that travel restrictions between countries are acceptable in order to fight against the spreading of the Coronavirus.”
Finding No. 8600– This special Roy Morgan survey was conducted with a representative cross-section of 1,008 Australians on November 12 – 17, 2020. They were asked“Do you think that 2021 will be better, worse, or the same as 2020?”
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
