PM Jacinda Ardern on track for easy re-election as National’s leader Todd Muller resigns after fewer than two months in the job

In June support for Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Party was at 54.5% down 2% since May, but still more than double the support for National on 27%, up only 0.5%, two months before the election in mid-September.

If an election were held today Labour could govern without the help of either New Zealand First or the Greens.

The large decline in support for National since being level with Labour on 40% in January prompted the opposition to replace former leader Simon Bridges with Todd Muller in late May. The latest results for June show the change in leadership had a negligible impact on support for National and this week Muller resigned after less than two months in the job citing health reasons.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a NZ wide cross-section of 879 electors during June. Of all electors surveyed 6% (up 0.5%) didn’t name a party. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

Support for the Labour/NZ First/Greens governing coalition held strong at 65% in June

In June 65% of electors supported the Labour/NZ First/Greens governing coalition, down 1% since May. The governing coalition was well ahead of the Parliamentary opposition National/ Act NZ on only 32%, but up 2% since May.

• Support for Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peter’s NZ First was at only 1.5% in June, down 1% since May and down a significant 5.7% since their election result of 7.2% in 2017. NZ First dropped below the party vote threshold of 5% in June and may be ejected from Parliament altogether at this year’s NZ Election if the voting intention translates into less than 5% of the vote.
• Greens support was at 9%, up 2% since May and up 2.7% since their election result in 2017 and was comfortably above the 5% threshold.
• Support for Act NZ increased to 5% in June, up 1.5% since May and were this level of support repeated at the election it would be Act’s best election result since 2002.

A small minority of 3% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament.

• Of the parties outside Parliament The Opportunities Party (TOP) was up 0.5% to 1.5% in June and the Maori Party was at 1% (down 0.5%).

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating at near record high of 153.5 in June

Despite a small decline, the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was at a very high 153.5 in June, but down 5pts from 158 in May.

The majority (72%) of New Zealand electors (down 4% since May) said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to only 18.5% (up 1%) that said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

In contrast to decline in the latest Government Confidence Rating the monthly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating increased by 7.2pts to 104.5 in June and was back above the neutral level of 100 for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic began.

Although both indices started 2020 in a similar place with Government Confidence at 128.5 in January and ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence at 122.7 – they have moved in opposite directions since.

Government Confidence increased early in the year and peaked in April at a record high of 163, and has since declined 9.5pts, while Consumer Confidence dropped early in the year and hit a ten-year low of 84.8 in the same month and has since increased by 19.7pts over the last two months.

Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan, says National’s decision to change leaders in late May has failed to improve their support with Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern set to be re-elected with an increased majority in September:

New Zealand Party Vote: 2020

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January – June 2020. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 897.

New Zealand Party Vote: NZ Govt. v Parliamentary Opposition

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January – June 2020. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 897.

Roy Morgan NZ Government Confidence Rating vs. ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January – June 2020. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 897.

Voting Intention Summary

The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the September 23, 2017 General Election:

*The 1996 Election was the first New Zealand Election contested via MMP (Mixed Member Proportional). At the 1996 Election the Greens Party contested as part of the “Alliance” political grouping with four other political parties. **The Maori Party was launched in July 2004. The Opportunities Party (TOP) was launched in November 2016.

Two-Party Preferred: Labour Party-led Government vs. Parliamentary Opposition Parties

*At the 2017 New Zealand Election the National-led Government returned only two parties (National & Act NZ) who received 44.95% of the vote compared to 50.36% that went to the three Parliamentary Opposition Parties: Labour, New Zealand First and the Greens.

NEW ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION?

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

Browse our New Zealand Electorate Profiles.

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