PM Jacinda Ardern ascendant as Labour support (56.5%) is now more than double National (26.5%) three months from NZ Election

In May in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown, and amidst gradual re-opening of the NZ economy, support for Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Party has soared to 56.5%. Labour Party support is up 1.5% since April and up a stunning 16.5% since January 2020 when the two major parties were locked at 40% support each.

The rise in support for Labour is such that were an election held today Labour could govern without the help of either New Zealand First or the Greens.

National support has dropped significantly to only 26.5% in May, down 4% from April and down 13.5% since January. The large drop in support for National over the last two months has seen the Opposition replace former leader Simon Bridges with Todd Muller in late May.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a NZ wide cross-section of 894 electors during April 27 – May 24, 2020. Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

Support for the Labour/NZ First/Greens governing coalition hits a massive 66% in May

In May 66% of electors support the Labour/NZ First/Greens governing coalition, up 1.5% since April, and up 13% since January. The governing coalition is well ahead of the Parliamentary opposition National/ Act NZ on only 30%, down 3% since April, and down 13% since January.

The surge in support for Labour has come at the expense of not only the opposition National, but also governing partners NZ First and the Greens. NZ First are now below the party vote threshold of 5% and may be ejected from Parliament altogether at this year’s NZ Election in September if the voting intention translates into less than 5% of the vote.

• Support for Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peter’s NZ First is at only 2.5% in May, unchanged since April, but down a significant 4.7% since their election result of 7.2% in 2017.
• Greens support has also fallen in 2020 although is still comfortably above the 5% threshold at 7% in May, unchanged from April, but down 3.5% since January.
• Support for Act NZ is now higher than it has been for many years at 3.5% in May, up 1% since April and a significant 3% higher than their 2017 election result of only 0.5%.

A small minority of 4% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament.

• Of the parties outside Parliament the Maori Party is at 1.5% in May, unchanged since April and The Opportunities Party (TOP) is now on 1% (up 0.5%).

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating at near record high of 158.5 in May

Despite a small decline, the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is at a very high 158.5 in May, down 4.5pts from the record high of 163 reached in April.

A stunning majority of 76% of New Zealand electors (down 1% since April) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to only 17.5% (up 3.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

In contrast to the soaring Government Confidence Rating the monthly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating plunged during March and April, but has now recovered significant ground in May increasing 12.5pts to 97.3 as the lockdown began to be eased from Tuesday April 28.

Although both indices started 2020 in a similar place with Government Confidence at 128.5 in January and ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence at 122.7 – they have moved in the opposite direction since. Government Confidence is now around 30pts higher in May while Consumer Confidence is now about 25pts lower than where it started the year – although now recovering.

Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan, says Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic this year has led the world and New Zealand is now re-opening its economy with the virus almost completely eliminated from the country:

New Zealand Party Vote: 2020

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January – May 2020. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 900.

New Zealand Party Vote: NZ Govt. v Parliamentary Opposition

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January – May 2020. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 900.

Roy Morgan NZ Government Confidence Rating vs. ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January – May 2020. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 900.

Voting Intention Summary

The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the September 23, 2017 General Election:

*The 1996 Election was the first New Zealand Election contested via MMP (Mixed Member Proportional). At the 1996 Election the Greens Party contested as part of the “Alliance” political grouping with four other political parties.

Two-Party Preferred: Labour Party-led Government vs. Parliamentary Opposition Parties

*At the 2017 New Zealand Election the National-led Government returned only two parties (National & Act NZ) who received 44.95% of the vote compared to 50.36% that went to the three Parliamentary Opposition Parties: Labour, New Zealand First and the Greens.

NEW ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION?

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

Browse our New Zealand Electorate Profiles.

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