Real unemployment at 10.3% as L-NP starts new term in Government

The latest data for the Roy Morgan employment series for May shows:

In May 1.37 million Australians were unemployed (10.3% of the workforce) with an additional 1.22 million (9.2%) now under-employed.

• The workforce, which comprises employed Australians and those who are unemployed and looking for work, was down year-on-year by 166,000 to 13,295,000. The decreasing workforce was driven by a fall in employment which fell 219,000 to 11,926,000 in May 2019;
  
  
• The fall in employment was driven by a significant decrease in part-time employment of 375,000 to 3,911,000. However, over the past year full-time employment was up by 156,000 to 8,015,000;
  
  
• Now 1,369,000 Australians (10.3% of the workforce) are unemployed, up 53,000 on a year ago and the unemployment rate was up by 0.5%;
  
  
• An additional 1,223,000 Australians (9.2% of the workforce) are under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a decrease of 28,000 in a year (down 0.1%);
  
  
• Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 10.3% for May is significantly higher than the current ABS estimate for April 2019 of 5.2% although Roy Morgan’s under-employment estimate of 9.2% is comparable to the current ABS underemployment estimate of 8.5%;
  
  
• Roy Morgan’s total unemployment and under-employment of 2,592,000 Australians (19.5% of the workforce) in May, an increase of 25,000 in a year (up 0.4%) seems large but the biennial ABS survey the ‘Barriers and Incentives to Labour Force Participation’ claims a comparable figure of 2.7 million Australians aged 18+ would like a job or to work more hours – including 1.1 million people the ABS said wanted a job but excluded from the Labour Force;
  
  
• Of interest this is the fourth consecutive year that the unemployment rate has increased month-on-month in May after daylight savings ended the month before in April.
  

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source October 2005 – May 2019. Average monthly interviews 4,000.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the L-NP’s victory at the Federal Election has given the Government another three years to tackle the ongoing problem of high unemployment and under-employment now numbering over 2.5 million (19.5% of the workforce):

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 633,544 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – May 2019 and includes 3,998 face-to-face interviews in May 2019. *The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work.

Roy Morgan Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimates

*Workforce includes those employed and those looking for work – the unemployed.

For further information:

Unemployment Data Tables

Roy Morgan Research Employment Estimates (2001-2019)

Roy Morgan Research Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates (2007-2019)

Roy Morgan Research vs ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2019)

ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2019)

ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA
NOT THE ‘PERCEPTION’ OF UNEMPLOYMENT – JUNE 8, 2012

http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Files/Papers/2012/20120603.pdf

The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section by face-to-face interviews. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when.

The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews. Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.

The ABS classifies a person as unemployed if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.

For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate. Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published.

For comments or more information please contact:
Roy Morgan - Enquiries
Office: +61 (03) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com