Jokowi set for comfortable victory in April Presidential Election
Indonesian President Jokowi is set for a comfortable re-election in April’s Presidential Election. Jokowi has the support of 58% of Indonesian electors in January, up 5% from the 2014 Indonesian Presidential Election, and well ahead of opponent Prabowo Subianto on 42%, down 5%, according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll on the Indonesian Presidency conducted in January 2019 with 1,039 Indonesian electors aged 17+.
The strong support for President Jokowi translates into strong support for his party the PDI-P. The PDI-P has the support of 40.5% of Indonesians for the concurrent Indonesian legislative elections in April, up significantly from the 2014 Indonesian Elections, and well ahead of Prabowo’s party Gerindra on 25%. The remaining 34.5% of support is spread between a multitude of parties contesting the elections.
Jokowi has strong rural support while Prabowo is competitive in urban areas
Analysing the Roy Morgan Indonesian Presidential Poll by location shows Jokowi leads in most areas of Indonesia and leads strongly in rural Indonesia. In rural areas the preference is clearly in favour of President Jokowi (63.5%) cf. Prabowo (36.5%).
Urban areas are far more competitive and based on Prabowo’s strong performance in the capital of Jakarta and surrounding areas in West Java including Banten and the southern provinces of Sumatra. However, even in Indonesia’s urban areas there is a narrow advantage for President Jokowi (53%) cf. Prabowo (47%).
Support for Jokowi is unsurprisingly strongest in his home province of Central Java with President Jokowi capturing nearly three-quarters of support: Jokowi (74.5%) cf. Prabowo (25.5%). Support for the President is also very strong in the neighbouring provinces of East Java and Bali: Jokowi (73%) cf. Prabowo (27%).
Jokowi also enjoys strong support in the more remote northern provinces of Sumatra: Jokowi (74%) cf. Prabowo (26%) and Indonesia’s most confident location the island of Sulawesi: Jokowi (62.5%) cf. Prabowo (37.5%).
Support for challenger Prabowo Subianto is concentrated in his home province of West Java and the capital Jakarta where Prabowo (57%) leads Jokowi (43%) and in the neighbouring southern provinces of Sumatra: Prabowo (54.5%) cf. Jokowi (45.5%). On the island of Kalimantan the President enjoys a narrow advantage over his challenger: Jokowi (54%) cf. Prabowo (46%).
Women show strong support for President Jokowi
Analysing by Gender shows Jokowi’s lead is based upon his strong appeal to women. Amongst women Jokowi (61%) is clearly favoured to Prabowo (39%). However, men also favour Jokowi but by a narrower margin: Jokowi (55%) cf. Prabowo (45%).
Support for Jokowi strongest amongst Indonesians aged 25-49
Analysing the support for each candidate by age shows Jokowi with strong leads amongst all age groups and is heaviest appeal is for those mid-aged Indonesians aged 25-49 years old.
- 17-24yr olds: Jokowi (54.5%) cf. Prabowo (45.5%);
- 25-34yr olds: Jokowi (61.5%) cf. Prabowo (38.5%);
- 35-49yr olds: Jokowi (59.5%) cf. Prabowo (40.5%);
- 50+yr olds: Jokowi (58.5%) cf. Prabowo (41.5%).
Legislature Voting Intention – January 2019
Today’s Roy Morgan Poll shows Jokowi’s political party the PDI-P with support of 40.5% in January, up a significant 21.5% since the last Indonesian Legislative Election held in April 2014 before Jokowi was elected President later in the year.
Also performing strongly on the back of the Presidential campaign of their chairman Prabowo is Gerindra with support of 25%, up 13% since the 2014 Legislative Election.
The PDI-P and Gerindra were the only parties that qualified to stand candidates in the Presidential Election due to the level of support the parties were able to gather in the Indonesian legislature. According to new Indonesian laws legislated in 2017 a minimum of 20% of the seats in the legislature are required to support the nomination of a Presidential candidate.
Supporting PDI-P candidate Jokowi are coalition partners Golkar 5.5% (down 9.5% since the last election), PPP 1% (down 5%), Hanura 0.5% (down 4.5%), NasDem 1.5% (down 5.5%) and PKB 3.5% (down 5.5%). Support for the PDI-P led coalition is now at 52.5%, down 8.5% from the last election.
Supporting Gerindra candidate Prabowo are coalition partners Demokrat 6% (down 4%), PKS 5% (down 2%) and PAN 4.5% (down 3.5%). Support for the Gerindra led coalition is now at 40.5%, down 3.5% from the last election.
Michele Levine, Chief Executive Officer, Roy Morgan says the strong performance of the Indonesian economy over the last five years is set to deliver Jokowi another term:
“Indonesians are heading to the polls in April to vote on their preferred Presidential candidate and also elect members to the 711 seat People’s Consultative Assembly. For the first time the Indonesian Presidential and Legislative Elections will be held on the same day – April 17, 2019.
“Today’s Roy Morgan Indonesian Poll shows that Indonesians are set to re-elect incumbent President Joko Widodo to another five year term as President. Jokowi has the support of 58% of Indonesian electors in January – up 5% from the 2014 Presidential Election. Jokowi’s opponent Prabowo Subianto has the support of only 42%, down 5%.
“Support for the Majority Coalition led by Jokowi’s PDI-P is also holding strong at 52.5% compared to 40.5% for the Minority Coalition led by Prabowo’s party Gerindra. There is support of 7% for minor parties and other candidates although the 4% of votes required at the election means these parties are unlikely to elect any representatives to the legislature.
“The strong support for Jokowi is hardly surprising when one considers Indonesia has been the second best performing G20 economy (behind China) for many years now – averaging growth of around 5% during Jokowi’s first term in office (2014-2019).
“Jokowi’s support is widespread however it is strongest in rural areas outside the capital Jakarta, including his home area of Central Java, East Java & Bali, the northern provinces of Sumatra and the island of Sulawesi. Jokowi also has the magic touch with Indonesian women – over 60% of women support Jokowi compared to only 39% that support Prabowo.
“Although the Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating dropped slightly to start 2019, by 2.6pts to 156.2 in January the measure has just come off a record year. In 2018 Indonesian Consumer Confidence averaged 158.1 – a stunning figure more than 40pts higher than the comparable ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence (now at 114.1 in February).
“The strong performance of the Indonesian economy over the last five years, and the exceptional confidence expressed by everyday Indonesians over the last year are certainly strong pointers to the success of President Jokowi’s political leadership heading towards the April Presidential Election.”
Electors were asked: "If general elections for members of DPR were being held today, for which party's candidate would you vote?" And for the Presidential poll "I am going to show you a list of candidates for President and Vice-President. Which one would you be most likely to vote for as President and Vice-President in the next election?”
Finding No. 7907 - This Morgan Poll on Indonesian Presidential and Parliamentary voting intention was conducted in January 2019 with an Indonesian-wide cross-section of 1,039 electors aged 17+ and in December 2018 with an Indonesian-wide cross-section of 1,045 electors aged 17+. Face-to-face interviews were conducted in 17 provinces, with effort made to ensure a balanced sample representing the electorate both geographically and demographically. Less than 1% of electors in both polls couldn’t say who they support.
Indonesian Presidential Voting Intention
| Presidential Candidates | Indonesian Presidential
Election – July 2014 |
December 2018 |
January
2019 |
| % | % | % | |
| Jokowi (Joko Widodo) | 53 | 59.5 | 58 |
| Prabowo Subianto | 47 | 40.5 | 42 |
| TOTAL | 100 | 100 | 100 |
Joko Widodo’s Vice-Presidential running mate is Prof. Dr. K.H. Ma’rul Amin. Prabowo Subianto’s Vice-Presidential running mate is Sandiaga Uno.
Indonesian Presidential Voting Intention – By Urban/Rural
| Urban/Rural | |||
| Presidential Candidates |
Electors | Urban | Rural |
| % | % | % | |
| Jokowi (Joko Widodo) | 58 | 53 | 63.5 |
| Prabowo Subianto | 42 | 47 | 36.5 |
| TOTAL | 100 | 100 | 100 |
Indonesian Presidential Voting Intention – By Province/ Island*
| By Province/ Island* | ||||||||
| Presidential Candidates |
Electors | *Jakarta & West Java |
East Java & Bali | Central Java & Yogyakarta | *S’thern Sumatra | *N’thern Sumatra | *Island of Sulawesi | *Island of Kalimantan |
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| Jokowi (Joko Widodo) | 58 | 43 | 73 | 74.5 | 45.5 | 62.5 | 69 | 54 |
| Prabowo Subianto | 42 | 57 | 27 | 25.5 | 54.5 | 37.5 | 31 | 46 |
| TOTAL | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
*Designations: Jakarta & West Java includes Banten; Southern Sumatra includes Southern Sumatra (Sumatera Selatan) and Lampung; Northern Sumatra includes Northern Sumatra (Sumatera Utara), West Sumatra (Sumatera Barat) and Riau. Island of Sulawesi includes Southern Sulawesi (Sulawesi Selatan) and Northern Sulawesi (Sulawesi Utara); Island of Kalimantan includes East Kalimantan (Kalimantan Timur), Southern Kalimantan (Kalimantan Selatan) and West Kalimantan (Kalimantan Barat).
Indonesian Presidential Voting Intention – By Gender & Age
| Gender | Age | ||||||
| Presidential Candidates | Electors | Male | Female | 17-24 | 25-34 | 35-49 | 50+ |
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| Jokowi (Joko Widodo) | 58 | 55 | 61 | 54.5 | 61.5 | 59.5 | 58.5 |
| Prabowo Subianto | 42 | 45 | 39 | 45.5 | 38.5 | 40.5 | 41.5 |
| TOTAL | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
Indonesian Legislative Voting Intention
| Political Parties | Indonesian Legislative Election April 2014 |
December
2018 |
January 2019 |
| % | % | % | |
| PDI-P | 19 | 40.5 | 40.5 |
| Gerindra | 12 | 21.5 | 25 |
| Demokrat | 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Golkar | 15 | 3 | 5.5 |
| PKS | 7 | 4.5 | 5 |
| PAN | 8 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| PKB | 9 | 6.5 | 3.5 |
| NasDem | 7 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| PPP | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| Perindo | n/a | 2 | 1 |
| Garuda | n/a | 1 | 1 |
| Hanura | 5 | 1 | 0.5 |
| Others* | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| TOTAL | 100 | 100 | 100 |
*Other parties polled less than 0.5% of the vote each and include PBB, PKPI, PSI Berkarya and Others.
Indonesian Legislative Voting Intention - Coalitions
| Political Parties | Indonesian Legislative Election April 2014 |
December
2018 |
January 2019 |
| % | % | % | |
| PDI-P led Majority Coalition* | 61 | 54.5 | 52.5 |
| Gerindra led Minority Coalition* | 37 | 37.5 | 40.5 |
| Others* | 2 | 8 | 7 |
| TOTAL | 100 | 100 | 100 |
*PDI-P led Majority Coalition also includes Golkar, PKB, NasDem, PPP and Hanura. Gerindra led Minority Coalition also includes Demokrat, PKS and PAN. Other parties include Perindo, Garuda, PBB, PKPI, PSI Berkarya and Others.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
