Potential National/Act NZ coalition (50%) strengthens its clear lead over Labour/Greens (43%) in May
Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows support for a potential National/Act NZ coalition increasing by 2.5% points to 50% in May and stretching its lead over the Labour/Greens on 43%, down 1% point. This is a lead of 7% points for National/Act NZ, the largest since the Jacinda Ardern-led Government came to office over four years ago in October 2017.
Support for National increased by 2.5% points in May to 40% while support for fellow right-leaning party Act NZ was unchanged at 10%. Support for the Maori Party was down 0.5% points to 1%.
Support for New Zealand’s Labour/Greens ‘coalition’ government was down by 1% point to 43% in May. Support for Labour was down by 2% points to 31.5% while support for the Greens increased by 1% point to 11.5%.
A minority of 6% of electors (down 1% point) support other minor parties outside Parliament with support for New Zealand First up 0.5% points to 3%, The Opportunities Party down 1% point to 1% and support for the New Conservative Party unchanged at 0.5% in May.
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 934 electors during May. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed only 3%, down 1.5% points, did not name a party.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating falls 3.5pts to 90 in May
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating fell by 3.5pts in May to 90. The indicator is now a massive 44pts from a year ago in May 2021, and down 35pts from September 2021.
In May only 40% (down 3% points) of electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 50% (up 0.5% points) who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand fell by 2.1pts to 82.3 and is still well below the latest Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 90.7 on May 23-29, 2022.
Women continue to favour Labour/Greens while men firmly support National and Act NZ
Support for the Labour/ Greens coalition is strongest amongst young women aged 18-49 at 55.5% compared to only 38% support for National/ Act NZ. However, for women aged 50+ support is at 50% for National/Act NZ and now ahead of Labour/Greens on 46.5%.
The smallest Parliamentary Opposition, the Maori Party, attracts the support of 1% of women including 1% of women aged 18-49 and 1% of women aged 50+.
There is a stark difference for men with 56.5% supporting National or Act NZ. In May 48% of men aged 18-49 supported National/ Act NZ compared to 43% that supported Labour/ Greens. For men aged 50+ there were 65.5% supporting National/ Act NZ compared to only 26% supporting Labour/ Greens.
The Maori Party attracts only 0.5% support from men including 1% support from men aged 18-49 but only 0.5% support of men aged 50+.
Support for the Greens is far higher amongst both younger women and younger men than their older counterparts. Over one-in-five women aged 18-49 (21%) and one-in-eight men aged 18-49 (12.5%) support the Greens compared to only 6% of women aged 50+ and just 5.5% of men aged 50+.
Party vote analysis by Gender & Age
| Women | Men | ||||||
| Total | All | 18-49 | 50+ | All | 18-49 | 50+ | |
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| Labour | 31.5 | 37.5 | 34.5 | 40.5 | 25.5 | 30.5 | 20.5 |
| Greens | 11.5 | 13.5 | 21 | 6 | 9.5 | 12.5 | 5.5 |
| Labour/ Greens | 43 | 51 | 55.5 | 46.5 | 35 | 43 | 26 |
| National | 40 | 37.5 | 34 | 41.5 | 42.5 | 34 | 52 |
| Act NZ | 10 | 6.5 | 4 | 8.5 | 14 | 14 | 13.5 |
| Maori Party | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 | 0.5 |
| National/ Act NZ/ Maori Party | 51 | 45 | 39 | 51 | 57 | 49 | 66 |
| Others | 6 | 4 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Right Direction | 40 | 43 | 43 | 43.5 | 36.5 | 42.5 | 29.5 |
| Wrong Direction | 50 | 47 | 45.5 | 48.5 | 53 | 48.5 | 58.5 |
| Government Confidence Rating | 90 | 96 | 97.5 | 95 | 83.5 | 94 | 71 |
| Can’t say | 10 | 10 | 11.5 | 8 | 10.5 | 9 | 12 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating dipped in May, down for both women and men
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating fell for both genders in May and is now back below the neutral level of 100 for women at 96, down 4.5pts on a month ago. There was a similar deterioration among men, although at a significantly lower level, down 2pts to 83.5.
Amongst women there are now only 43% who say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 47% that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
In contrast a clear majority of men, 53% now say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ while just over a third of men, 36.5%, say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’.
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is highest for women aged 18-49 at 97.5 while for women aged 50+ it is slightly lower at 95. There is a larger difference for men with those aged 18-49 having a Government Confidence Rating of 94 and only 71 for men aged 50+.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the potential National/Act NZ coalition (50%) has increased its lead over the governing Labour/Greens government (43%) in May with support for National increasing to 40% - its highest for over two years since January 2020:
“Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows the lead for a potential National/Act NZ (50%) coalition over the governing Labour/Greens government (43%) increasing to 7% points – the largest lead for National/Act NZ since Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern came to office in October 2017.
“The increase in support for National, up 2% points to 40%, came at the expense of Ardern’s Labour Party, down 2% points to 31.5% – a gap of 8.5% points in favour of National and easily the largest gap in favour of the leading Opposition Party since it lost office in 2017.
“The month of May was not a good one for Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and the Government. Ardern contracted COVID-19 in mid-May which led to a forced week in isolation and as well as falling further behind National there were also negative moves on key indicators.
“Now just 40% of electors (down 3% points since April) say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’ while 50% of electors (up 0.5% points) say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. This leads to a Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating of 90 – below the neutral level of 100.
“While the Government Confidence Rating for women is higher than the national average at 96 it is at only 83.5 for men and only 36.5% of men say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’.
“In addition to the deterioration of Government Confidence there has also been a further drop in the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating, which was down 2.1pts to 82.3. A big driver of the low Consumer Confidence is clearly the increasing interest rates in New Zealand.
“The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised interest rates by 0.50% in May to 2% – the highest official interest rates have been for nearly six years since November 2016. The RBNZ has now increased official interest rates on five separate occasions by a total of 1.75%.
“Although the five interest rate increases by the RBNZ since October 2021 are clearly having a negative impact on confidence within New Zealand; the RBNZ’s own forecasts show that official interest rates will be around 3.9% by this time next year – a further increase of nearly 2% points.
“The prospect of interest rates doubling again from their current level in an effort to get control of inflation within New Zealand will not be welcome news for many New Zealand mortgage holders – nor for the Ardern Government which faces re-election later next year.
“If this month’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll results are converted into a distribution of seats at next year’s New Zealand Election a National-Act NZ coalition would win 64 seats compared to 55 seats for a Labour-Greens combination.”
New Zealand Party Vote: 2020-22
Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – May 2022.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 933.
New Zealand Party Vote: NZ Govt. v Parliamentary Opposition
Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – May 2022.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 933.
Roy Morgan NZ Government Confidence Rating vs. ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence
Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – May 2022.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 933.
Two-Party Preferred: Labour Party-led Government vs. Parliamentary Opposition Parties
| Labour Party-led Government
(Labour, Greens) |
Parliamentary Opposition Parties (National, Act NZ & Maori) |
|
| NZ Election, October 17, 2020* | 57.87 | 34.33 |
| ROY MORGAN NEW ZEALAND POLL | ||
| Labour wins the NZ Election and, despite securing a majority of seats in Parliament, signs a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens – October 31, 2020 |
||
| 2021 | ||
| January 2021 | 58.5 | 36 |
| February 2021 | 58.5 | 37.5 |
| March 2021 | 57.5 | 35 |
| April 2021 | 55 | 41 |
| May 2021 | 56 | 39 |
| June 2021 | 51 | 43.5 |
| July 2021 | 49.5 | 44.5 |
| August 2021 | 51.5 | 40.5 |
| September 2021 | 55 | 41 |
| October 2021 | 50 | 44 |
| November 2021 | 46.5 | 47 |
| December 2021 | 44 | 51 |
| 2022 | ||
| January 2022 | 43.5 | 51 |
| February 2022 | 43 | 51.5 |
| March 2022 | 42.5 | 49 |
| April 2022 | 44 | 49 |
| May 2022 | 43 | 51 |
*At the 2020 NZ Election the Labour party secured 50.01% of the vote which was enough to govern in their own right but Labour opted to sign a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens, who won 7.86% of the vote. There were three Parties elected to Parliament not in Government led by National (25.58%), Act NZ (7.59%) and the Maori Party (1.17%).
Voting Intention Summary
The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the October 17, 2020, General Election:
National-led Governments (& supporting parties) are highlighted in Blue.
Labour-led Governments (& supporting parties) are highlighted in Red.
| PARTY VOTE | Labour | Green Party* | National | ACT NZ | Maori Party** | TOP** | NZ First | Other |
| ELECTIONS | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % |
| October 12, 1996* | 28.19 | 10.10 | 33.87 | 6.10 | n/a | n/a | 13.35 | 8.39 |
| November 27, 1999 | 38.74 | 5.16 | 30.50 | 7.04 | n/a | n/a | 4.26 | 14.30 |
| July 27, 2002 | 41.26 | 7.00 | 20.93 | 7.14 | n/a | n/a | 10.38 | 13.29 |
| September 17, 2005 | 41.10 | 5.30 | 39.10 | 1.51 | 2.12 | n/a | 5.72 | 5.15 |
| November 8, 2008 | 33.99 | 6.72 | 44.93 | 3.65 | 2.39 | n/a | 4.07 | 4.25 |
| November 26, 2011 | 27.48 | 11.06 | 47.31 | 1.07 | 1.43 | n/a | 6.59 | 5.06 |
| September 20, 2014 | 25.13 | 10.70 | 47.04 | 0.69 | 1.32 | n/a | 8.66 | 6.46 |
| September 23, 2017 | 36.89 | 6.27 | 44.45 | 0.50 | 1.18 | 2.44 | 7.20 | 1.07 |
| October 17, 2020 | 50.01 | 7.86 | 25.58 | 7.59 | 1.17 | 1.51 | 2.60 | 3.70 |
| ROY MORGAN POLL | ||||||||
| December 2020 | 44 | 10.5 | 28 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.5 |
| 2021 | ||||||||
| January 2021 | 47 | 11.5 | 25 | 9 | 2 | 1.5 | 2 | 2 |
| February 2021 | 45 | 13.5 | 29 | 7.5 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| March 2021 | 45.5 | 12 | 23 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 2.5 | 3 |
| April 2021 | 41.5 | 13.5 | 29.5 | 9 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 1 | 2.5 |
| May 2021 | 45 | 11 | 28.5 | 9 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 1.5 |
| June 2021 | 38.5 | 12.5 | 29.5 | 11.5 | 2.5 | 2 | 1.5 | 2 |
| July 2021 | 39.5 | 10 | 29 | 13 | 2.5 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| August 2021 | 39.5 | 12 | 25 | 13 | 2.5 | 2 | 2.5 | 3.5 |
| September 2021 | 45.5 | 9.5 | 23 | 16 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1 |
| October 2021 | 39.5 | 10.5 | 26 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| November 2021 | 36 | 10.5 | 26.5 | 17.5 | 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| December 2021 | 35.5 | 8.5 | 31.5 | 18.5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 2022 | ||||||||
| January 2022 | 33 | 10.5 | 35 | 13.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| February 2022 | 32 | 11 | 38 | 11.5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2.5 |
| March 2022 | 32 | 10.5 | 38 | 9 | 2 | 1.5 | 4 | 3 |
| April 2022 | 33.5 | 10.5 | 37.5 | 10 | 1.5 | 2 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| May 2022 | 31.5 | 11.5 | 40 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
*The 1996 Election was the first New Zealand Election contested via MMP (Mixed Member Proportional). At the 1996 Election the Greens Party contested as part of the “Alliance” political grouping with four other political parties.
**The Maori Party was launched in July 2004. The Opportunities Party (TOP) was launched in November 2016.
Roy Morgan New Zealand Seat Predictor
The following table compares the projected seats to be won by the various New Zealand political parties based on the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the results from previous MMP Elections:
National-led Governments (& supporting parties) are highlighted in Blue.
Labour-led Governments (& supporting parties) are highlighted in Red.
| SEAT COUNT | Labour | Green Party* | National | ACT NZ | Maori Party** | NZ First | Other |
| ELECTIONS | % | % | % | % | % | % | % |
| October 12, 1996* | 37 | 0 | 44 | 8 | 0 | 17 | 14* |
| November 27, 1999 | 49 | 7 | 39 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 11* |
| July 27, 2002 | 52 | 9 | 27 | 9 | 0 | 13 | 10* |
| September 17, 2005 | 50 | 6 | 48 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 4* |
| November 8, 2008 | 43 | 9 | 58 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 2* |
| November 26, 2011 | 34 | 14 | 59 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 2* |
| September 20, 2014 | 32 | 14 | 60 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 1* |
| September 23, 2017 | 46 | 8 | 56 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 0 |
| October 17, 2020 | 65 | 10 | 33 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| ROY MORGAN
SEAT PREDICTOR |
|||||||
| 2021 | |||||||
| January 2021 | 60 | 15 | 32 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| February 2021 | 56 | 17 | 36 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| March 2021 | 59 | 16 | 30 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| April 2021 | 52 | 17 | 37 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| May 2021 | 57 | 14 | 36 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| June 2021 | 49 | 16 | 37 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| July 2021 | 50 | 13 | 37 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| August 2021 | 51 | 16 | 33 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| September 2021 | 57 | 12 | 29 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| October 2021 | 51 | 13 | 33 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| November 2021 | 46 | 14 | 34 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| December 2021 | 45 | 11 | 40 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2022 | |||||||
| January 2022 | 42 | 13 | 45 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| February 2022 | 41 | 14 | 48 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| March 2022 | 42 | 14 | 50 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| April 2022 | 43 | 13 | 49 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| May 2022 | 40 | 15 | 51 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
*Other seats won at elections from 1996 - 2014 include: 1996 – 14 seats: Alliance (13 seats) & United NZ (1 seat); 1999 – 11 seats: Alliance (10 seats) & United NZ (1 seat); 2002 – 10 seats: United Future (8 seats) & Progressive (2 seats); 2005 – 4 seats: United Future (3 seats) & Progressive (1 seat); 2008 – 2 seats: Progressive (1 seat) & United Future (1 seat); 2011 – 2 seats: United Future (1 seat) & Mana Party (1 seat); 2014 – 1 seat: United Future (1 seat).
Fourth National Government (1990 – 1999): 1996 NZ Election: National (44 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with NZ First (17 seats) for a total of 61 seats in the 120 seat Parliament.
Fifth Labour Government (1999-2008): 1999 NZ Election: Labour (49 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with Alliance (10 seats) and the support of the Greens (7 seats) for a total of 66 seats in the 120 seat Parliament. 2002 NZ Election: Labour (52 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with the Progressive Coalition (2 seats) and confidence and supply from United Future (8 seats) for a total of 62 seats in the 120 seat Parliament. 2005 NZ Election: Labour (50 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with the Progressive Coalition (1 seat) and confidence and supply from New Zealand First (7 seats) and United Future (3 seats) for a total of 61 seats in the 121 seat Parliament (including 1 ‘overhang’ seat).
Fifth National Government (2008-2017): 2008 NZ Election: National (58 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the confidence and supply of Act NZ (5 seats), the Maori Party (5 seats) and United Future (1 seat) for a total of 69 seats in the 122 seat Parliament (including 2 ‘overhang’ seats). 2011 NZ Election: National (59 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the confidence and supply of Maori Party (3 seats), Act NZ (1 seat) and United Future (1 seat) for a total of 64 seats in the 121 seat Parliament (including 1 ‘overhang’ seat). 2014 NZ Election: National (60 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the confidence and supply of Maori Party (2 seats), Act NZ (1 seat) and United Future (1 seat) for a total of 64 seats in the 121 seat Parliament (including 1 ‘overhang’ seat).
Sixth Labour Government (2017-?): 2017 NZ Election: Labour (46 seats) ‘wins’ the NZ Election and governs in coalition with NZ First (9 seats) and the confidence and supply of the Greens (8 seats) for a total of 63 seats in the 120 seat Parliament. 2020 NZ Election: Labour (65 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the cooperation of the Greens (10 seats) for a total of 75 seats in the 120 seat Parliament.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
