ALP increases its lead over the L-NP as Government Confidence drops 8pts after higher than expected ABS inflation increases upward pressure on interest rates
The ALP gained 1% point on a two-party preferred basis during the week to Sunday May 1, increasing its lead to 11% points: ALP 55.5% cf. L-NP 44.5% according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll conducted from April 25 – May 1, 2022.
The weekly Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating plunged 8pts to 84 this week after the ABS reported higher than expected inflation of 5.1% for the year to March 2022 – the highest figure for over 20 years. The higher than expected inflation has increased the pressure on the RBA to raise interest rates for the first time in more than a decade – perhaps as soon as today.
There are now far more Australians, 50% (up 3.5% points), who say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to just over a third of Australians, 34% (down 4.5% points), who say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’.
This week’s result is the first swing to the ALP so far during the campaign and if a Federal Election had been held last weekend the ALP would have won a clear majority.
Analysis by State shows the ALP continues to lead in four States on a two-party preferred basis but the L-NP has kept its lead in both Queensland and Western Australia.
This Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention and Government Confidence was conducted via telephone and online interviewing of 1,487 Australian electors aged 18+ from Monday April 25 – Sunday May 1, 2022. There were 7% of electors (up 1% point) who wouldn’t say who they support.
Primary support for the major parties is level on 35%, but Greens support is up 1% to 13%
Primary support for the L-NP was down 0.5% points to 35% this week and is now level with the ALP which remains unchanged, also on 35%.
Importantly, there was an increase in support for the Greens, up 1% point to 13%, which helped power the gain for the ALP on a two-party preferred basis.
Other minor parties lost support this week with support for One Nation down 1.5% points to 3% and support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party down 0.5% points to 1%. Support for Other Parties was unchanged at 3.5% while support for Independents increased 1.5% points to 9.5%.
Voting Intention by State shows ALP leading in four of six States; L-NP ahead in WA & QLD
Voting analysis by State shows the ALP leading on a two-party preferred basis in four States with the L-NP continuing to lead in both Queensland and Western Australia – its two strongest States from the 2019 Federal Election.
The ALP has again slightly increased its lead in NSW with the ALP now on 56% (up 1% point) compared to the L-NP on 44% (down 1% point). This result represents a large swing of 8.3% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.
The ALP has again increased its lead in Victoria with the ALP on 63.5% (up 3.5% points) well ahead of the L-NP on 36.5% (down 3.5% points). This result represents a large swing of 10.4% points to the ALP in Victoria since the 2019 Federal Election.
In contrast, the L-NP has increased its lead in Queensland with the LNP on 56.5% (up 2% points) ahead of the ALP on 43.5% (down 2% points). This result still represents a swing of 1.9% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.
The L-NP has retained its lead for a third straight week in Western Australia and is now on 51% (down 3.5% points) ahead of the ALP on 49% (up 3.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. Despite the L-NP’s narrow lead this represents a swing of 4.6% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.
In South Australia, there has been a swing to the ALP with support for the ALP on 62.5% (up 1% point from a week ago) well ahead of the L-NP on 37.5% (down 1% point). This result represents a large swing of 11.8% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election and would reproduce the results of the recent South Australian Election which was a clear victory for the ALP.
In addition the ALP has a large lead in Tasmania with the ALP 57.5% cf. L-NP 42.5%, however this represents a swing of 1.5% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.
Roy Morgan Government Confidence drops 8pts to 84 after higher than expected inflation figure for the year to March 2022
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating dropped 8pts to 84 after the ABS reported a higher than expected inflation number for the year to March 2022 of 5.1% - the highest for over two decades.
The higher than expected inflation number has increased pressure on the RBA to raise interest rates for the first time in over a decade – perhaps as soon as today.
There are now far more Australians, 50% (up 3.5% points), who say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to just over a third of Australians, 34% (down 4.5% points), who say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’.
Government Confidence is now below the neutral level of 100 in all six States but is clearly highest in Western Australia at 98.5, just ahead of Tasmania on 94.5. The Government Confidence Rating remains above the national average in both South Australia (88.5) and Queensland (84.5).
However, in bad news for the Morrison Government, the Government Confidence Rating is below the national average and lowest in the two key States of Victoria (82) and New South Wales (81).
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the the higher than expected inflation number reported by the ABS (5.1% for the year to March 2022) and the prospect of an election campaign interest rate rise have ended the L-NP’s momentum since calling the election:
“Today’s Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention shows the ALP 55.5% (up 1% point) increasing its already strong lead over the L-NP 44.5% (down 1% point) on a two-party preferred basis. The ALP’s gain this week comes after two straight weeks of the L-NP cutting into the ALP’s strong lead since the election was called just over three weeks ago.
“There are several key take-outs from this week’s Roy Morgan Poll and the most important is that the L-NP continues to struggle in the key States of NSW and Victoria. The ALP increased its two-party preferred lead in both States during the past week: NSW: ALP 56% (up 1% point) cf. L-NP 44% (down 1% point) and Victoria: ALP: ALP 63.5% (up 3.5% points) cf. L-NP 36.5% (down 3.5% points).
“If these results are repeated at the Federal Election in just over two weeks’ time the L-NP is set to lose several seats in both States that will cost the Morrison Government the election.
“The good news for the L-NP is that they continue to lead in their two strongest States of Queensland: LNP 56.5% (up 2% points) cf. ALP 43.5% (down 2% points) and Western Australia: L-NP 51% (down 3.5% points) cf. ALP 49% (up 3.5% points).
“Although these results suggest the L-NP can hold onto most, if not all, of their seats in Queensland and WA that will not be enough to secure an election victory with the loss of seats in NSW and Victoria.
“The other striking take-out from this week’s Roy Morgan Poll is that both major parties continue to struggle to increase their primary votes which are stuck at 35% for both major parties this week.
“Support for all other parties has increased by 0.5% points to 30% this week. Support for the Greens has increased 1% point to 13% and support for the Independents also increased, by 1.5% points to 9.5%, while support for other minor parties such as One Nation and Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party decreased by 2% points to 7%. The movements in support for the minor parties all favoured the ALP on a two-party preferred basis.
“The strong performance of Independents in New South Wales and Victoria in this week’s Roy Morgan Poll bodes well for their chances of winning key Liberal seats in Inner Sydney, such as Wentworth and North Sydney, and seats such as Kooyong and Goldstein in Inner Melbourne.”
Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference? and “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
Australian Federal Voting Intention: Two-Party Preferred (2019-2022)
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=2,000. May 2019 – May 2022. Base: Australian electors 18+.
Australian Federal Voting Intention: Two-Party Preferred (2019-2022) – Female Electors
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=1,000. May 2019 – May 2022. Base: Female electors 18+.
Australian Federal Voting Intention: Two-Party Preferred (2019-2022) – Male Electors
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=1,000. May 2019 – May 2022. Base: Male electors 18+.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
