ANZ Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence drops 3.8pts to a new record low of 77.9 in March 2022
ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence dropped another 4 points in March to 77.9, a fresh record low in data that began in 2004.
- The proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item fell another 2% points to 26% while a majority of 51% (up 2% points) say it is a bad time to buy.
- Inflation expectations rose to 6% in March. House price inflation expectations eased from 4.8% to 2.7%, and are now lowest in Wellington at only 0.7%.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index dropped further to a fresh record low in March, as a perfect storm of Omicron, rising living costs, a retreating housing market and rising interest rates soured the mood.
Turning to the detail:
- Perceptions of current personal financial situations fell 6 points to -24%, the lowest since 2011.
- A net 9% expect to be worse off this time next year, down 7 points. That’s a record low by a long way, and it’s hard to put that down to Omicron alone.
- Households think on balance that it’s a terrible time to buy a major household item (-26%, down 5 points). This is the single best economic indicator in the survey.
- Perceptions regarding the next year’s economic outlook fell another 3 points to -45%. The five-year outlook lifted slightly to -7%.
- House price inflation expectations fell 2%pts to 2.7%, the lowest since July 2020.
- CPI inflation expectations lifted 0.4%pts to 6.0%, only the second time it’s breached the 6% level.
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Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
