ALP lead cut as bullying allegations surround ALP senators: ALP 55.5% cf. L-NP 44.5%
A Roy Morgan Poll conducted over the last week shows the ALP’s lead over the L-NP has been cut to its narrowest this year with the ALP 55.5% (down 2.5% points from a week ago) now 11% points ahead of the L-NP 44.5% (up 2.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis.
The latest Roy Morgan Poll was conducted as allegations of bullying by three ALP senators against former colleague Senator Kimberley Kitching were aired last week.
Analysis by State shows the L-NP gaining support in New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and Tasmania while ALP support increased in Queensland and South Australia.
This Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention and Government Confidence was conducted via telephone and online interviewing of 1,404 Australian electors aged 18+ from Monday March 21 - Sunday March 27, 2022. There were 5% of electors (down 2.5% points) who wouldn’t say who they support.
ALP leads L-NP by 2.5% points on primary vote as Federal Budget set to cut petrol excise
Primary support for the ALP dropped 2% points to 35.5% in late March as bullying allegations surrounding three ALP Senators swirled during the last week. The ALP now leads the L-NP by 2.5% points as support for the L-NP increased 2% points to 33%. Greens support was up 0.5% points at 12.5%.
Support for One Nation was up 0.5% points to 3.5%, while support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party was unchanged at 1%. Support for Other Parties decreased by 0.5% points to 4.5% while support for Independents was down 0.5% points to 10%.
Voting Intention by State shows the ALP leading in five States, behind only in Queensland
Voting analysis by State shows the ALP leading on a two-party preferred basis in five States, with the LNP enjoying a slight advantage in Queensland – easily their strongest state from the last Election.
The ALP’s lead in NSW has decreased from a week ago with the ALP now on 53% (down 4.5% points from a week ago) compared to the L-NP on 47% (up 4.5% points) in the lead-up to this week’s Federal Budget. This result represents a swing of 5.3% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.
The ALP’s lead in Victoria has also been cut with the ALP now on 60% (down 4% points from a week ago) compared to the L-NP on 40% (up 4% points) following the funeral of former Victorian ALP Senator Kimberley Kitching early last week. This result represents a swing of 6.9% points to the ALP in Victoria since the 2019 Federal Election.
The LNP advantage in Queensland has been cut with the LNP on 51% (down 3.5% points from a week ago) now just ahead of the ALP on 49% (up 3.5% points). Despite the LNP’s lead this result represents a large swing of 7.4% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.
The ALP’s lead in Western Australia has been cut from a week ago with the ALP on 57% (down 2% points from a week ago) cf. L-NP 43% (up 2% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This result represents a large swing of 12.6% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election and comes soon after Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s first visit to Western Australia this year.
In South Australia and fresh off a big State Election victory – support for the ALP has increased for the second straight week and is up 3% points in a week with the ALP on 63.5% cf. L-NP on 36.5% (down 3% points). The ALP’s election victory was the first by an Opposition Party in Australasia since the COVID-19 pandemic began just over two years. This represents a large swing of 12.8% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.
The ALP has a narrow lead in Tasmania with the ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%, which actually represents a swing of 3% points to the L-NP since the 2019 Federal Election – the only State in the country in which there is currently a swing to the L-NP.
Roy Morgan Government Confidence dropped 2.5pts to 80.5 in late March
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating dropped 2.5pts to 80.5 in late March. Now just a third of Australians, 33% (down 0.5% points) of Australians say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’, while a clear majority of 52.5% (up 2% points) say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
Government Confidence remains below 100 in all six States however, there remains a wide divergence of nearly 30pts between different States. Government Confidence is above average and highest in Western Australia on 94.5, Queensland on 87.5 and New South Wales on 83.
In the other three States Government Confidence is below average at 77.5 in South Australia, 70 in Victoria and well below average in Tasmania at only 66.5. Only 27.5% of Tasmanians say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 60% that say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says:
“Today’s Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention shows the ALP 55.5% (down 2.5% points from a week ago) with its narrowest lead over the L-NP 44.5% (up 2.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis so far this year.
“The drop in support for the ALP came entirely from women whereas support for the two parties amongst men was unchanged from a week ago. Despite the large weekly drop of 5.5% points, women’s support for the ALP remains strong with a large two-party preferred lead: ALP 58% cf. L-NP 42%. The ALP has retained it’s clear lead amongst men: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%.
“The political discussion over the last week has centred on the bullying allegations leveled against three ALP Senators – Penny Wong, Kristina Keneally and Katy Gallagher following the tragic death of their colleague Senator Kimberley Kitching. Senator Kitching died suddenly of a heart attack recently and had made accusations of being bullied by her Senate colleagues and had even accused the three named Senators as being so-called ‘Mean Girls’.
“The issue has played out extensively in the media and has had a direct impact on women’s support for the ALP. However, although women’s support for the ALP has dropped this week it is still higher than at the end of 2020. In mid-December 2021 women supported the ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5% on a two-party preferred basis.
“There was good news for the ALP this week in South Australia in particular with Peter Malinauskas leading the ALP to victory in the State Election. Malinauskas’ victory marks the first victory for an Opposition Party since the COVID-19 pandemic began in March 2020 and is considered by many as a pointer to what may happen at the Federal Election in mid-May.
“For the Government tonight’s Federal Budget represents its last big chance to boost its support to be competitive in the Federal Election. There has been much speculation about what will be included in the Budget, including increased spending on infrastructure, but the big item grabbing the attention is a speculated 20c temporary cut to the petrol excise.
“The latest weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations index shows the measure rising to a near ten-year high of 6.4% as Australians increasingly note the impact of rising prices. A substantial cut to the fuel excise will provide an immediate boost to consumers when filling up and will lower inflation across the economy – at least temporarily.”
Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference? and “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
Australian Federal Voting Intention: Two-Party Preferred (2019-2022)
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=2,000. May 2019–March 2022. Base: Australian electors 18+.
Australian Federal Voting Intention: Two-Party Preferred (2019-2022) – Female Electors
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=1,000. May 2019–March 2022. Base: Female electors 18+.
Australian Federal Voting Intention: Two-Party Preferred (2019-2022) – Male Electors
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=1,000. May 2019–March 2022. Base: Male electors 18+.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
