Honeymoon continues for National Leader Christopher Luxon with National support now at 38% – highest since January 2020

National/Act NZ (49.5%) now leads Labour/Greens (43%) by 6.5% points

Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows support for National increasing for the fifth month in a row, up 3% points to 38% and now at its highest for over two years since January 2020. Support for National has now increased 11.5% points in only three months since Luxon took over the leadership at the end of November 2021.

Support for a potential National/ Act NZ coalition government is now at 49.5% and clearly ahead of the current Labour/ Greens government of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern on 43%.

Although support for National increased for a fifth straight month the increase in February again came at the expense of fellow right-leaning party Act NZ for which support fell 2% points to 11.5% to its lowest since June 2021. Since Luxon took over the leadership of National support for Act NZ has now dropped by 6% points. Support for the Maori Party was down 0.5% points to 2%.

In contrast, support for New Zealand’s Labour/Greens ‘coalition’ government was down 0.5% points to 43% in February – the fifth straight month of declines for the government. Labour support dropped 1% point to only 32% to the lowest since Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern took office in late 2017 while support for the Greens increased 0.5% points to 11%.

A small minority of 5.5% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament with support for New Zealand First down 0.5% points to 2%, The Opportunities Party down 0.5% points to 1% and support for the New Conservative Party unchanged at 1% in February.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 963 electors during January. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 5%, down 2% points, did not name a party.

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating drops 11.5pts to 95 in February

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating dropped by 11.5pts in February to 95 to hit its lowest level since Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern was elected in October 2017.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is now down a massive 54.5pts from a year ago in February 2021 (149.5) and down 30pts from just September 2021 (125). These declines match a softening in support for the Government during this period as New Zealand has remained closed to the world while other countries, including neighbour Australia, have re-opened.

In February, 42.5% (down 6% points) of electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 47.5% (up 5.5% points) who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand dropped 16pts to a new record low of 81.7 and is now well below the latest Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 99.2 on Feb. 20-27, 2022 which has most recently been impacted by heavy flooding in Queensland.

Women continue to favour Labour/Greens while men firmly support National and Act NZ

Support for the Labour/ Greens coalition remains strong amongst women. Support for the Labour/ Greens coalition is at 52% for women aged 50+ compared to only 43.5% support for National/ Act NZ. For women aged 18-49 support is at 52% for the Labour/ Greens coalition compared to 44.5% for National/ Act NZ.

The smallest Parliamentary Opposition, the Maori Party, attracts the support of 3.5% of women including 5% of women aged 18-49 and 2% of women aged 50+.

There is a stark difference for men with 58.5% supporting National or Act NZ. In February 57% of men aged 18-49 supported National/ Act NZ compared to only 35.5% that supported Labour/ Greens. For men aged 50+ there were 60% supporting National/ Act NZ compared to 32.5% supporting Labour/ Greens.

The Maori Party attracts only 0.5% support from men including 0.5% support of men aged 18-49 and 1% support from men aged 50+.

Support for the Greens is far higher amongst both younger women and younger men than their older counterparts. One-in-five women aged 18-49 (20%) and almost one-in-six men aged 18-49 (15.5%) support the Greens compared to only 4% of women aged 50+ and just 5% of men aged 50+.

Party vote analysis by Gender & Age

*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 108 for Women compared to only 81 for men

The party support trends are confirmed by the latest Roy Morgan Government Confidence figures which are far more positive for women than men.

The overall results for the genders show that nearly half of women, 49%, say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to just over a third of men, 35.5%. In contrast, just over two-fifths of women, 41% say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to over half of men (54%).

Overall, this produces a Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating of 108 for women compared to only 81 for men – a gap of over 25 points.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is highest for women aged 18-49 at 110 while for women aged 50+ it is still clearly in positive territory at 105. There is a larger difference for men with those aged 18-49 having a Government Confidence Rating of 88 and only 72.5 for men aged 50+.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says new Opposition Leader Christopher Luxon’s ‘honeymoon’ has continued for a third month with National now up 11.5% points to 38% since Luxon took over the leadership at the end of November 2021:

New Zealand Party Vote: 2020-22

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – February 2022.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 933.

New Zealand Party Vote: NZ Govt. v Parliamentary Opposition

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – February 2022.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 933

Roy Morgan NZ Government Confidence Rating vs. ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – February 2022.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 933

Voting Intention Summary

The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the October 17, 2020 General Election:

*The 1996 Election was the first New Zealand Election contested via MMP (Mixed Member Proportional). At the 1996 Election the Greens Party contested as part of the “Alliance” political grouping with four other political parties.
**The Maori Party was launched in July 2004. The Opportunities Party (TOP) was launched in November 2016.

NEW ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION?

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

#Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).

The Roy Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and NZ member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

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