Australian unemployment drops to 8.5% in December as the workforce participation rate increased in the lead-up to Christmas, but under-employment up as Omicron surges in community

The latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows 1.25 million Australians were unemployed in December, down 78,000 on November (8.5% of the workforce), but a further 1.42 million Australians (9.7% of the workforce) were under-employed, up 218,000 (up 1.4% points).

• Workforce increased by 196,000 to near record 14.71 million in December:

The workforce in December was 14,713,000 (up 196,000 from November) – comprised of 13,461,000 employed Australians (up 274,000) and 1,252,000 unemployed Australians looking for work (down 78,000). It is important to understand that the workforce participation rate of Australians aged 14+ (69.4%) increased before Christmas and is now 2.3% points higher than it was prior to the pandemic in February 2020 (67.1%) with more Australians now both employed and unemployed than pre-pandemic.

• Employment in December increased to a record high of 13.46 million:

Australian employment increased 274,000 to 13,461,000 in December with full-time employment increasing by 28,000 to 8,817,000, its highest since June 2021 – before the outbreak of the Delta variant of COVID-19 in Sydney. Part-time employment was up by 246,000 to 4,644,000.

• Unemployment dropped in December as full-time and part-time employment increased:

1,252,000 Australians were unemployed (8.5% of the workforce), down 78,000 from November with fewer people looking for full-time work (down 25,000 to 557,000) and a significant drop in those looking for part-time work, down 53,000 to 695,000 as employment in part-time work increased by 246,000 – as mentioned above.

Roy Morgan Unemployment & Under-employment (2019-2021):

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source January 2019 – December 2021. Average monthly interviews 5,000.
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actual data while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.

Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 8.5% for December is over 4% points higher than the ABS estimate for December 2021 of 4.2%. 

However, the ABS figure for December counts as employed an additional 38,700 Australians who were working zero hours for ‘economic reasons’ and 46,300 Australians who were working zero hours for ‘other reasons’ – such as being forced out of work by mandatory lockdowns or forced isolation due to catching COVID-19 or being a close contact of a confirmed case.
If these 85,000 non-workers are added back the ABS unemployment estimate for December increases to 659,000 (4.8%). The ABS also claims there are 918,000 Australians (6.6%) under-employed for a total of over 1.5 million unemployed or under-employed (11.4% of the workforce) – an estimate which is still way under the latest Roy Morgan unemployment and under-employment estimate of 18.2%.

• Under-employment increased in December as part-time employment also increased:
In addition to those who were unemployed, 1.42 million Australians (9.7% of the workforce) were under-employed – working part-time but looking for more work, an increase of 218,000 (up 1.4% points) from November. In total 2.68 million Australians (18.2% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in December, an increase of 140,000 on November.

Compared to February 2020, before the nation-wide lockdown, in December 2021 there were over 200,000 more Australians either unemployed or under-employed (+0.9% points) even though overall employment (13,461,000) which is now 589,000 higher than it was pre-COVID-19 (12,872,000).

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the surge in the Omicron strain of COVID-19 since early December has played havoc with Australian employment markets over the past month:

Roy Morgan Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimates

*Workforce includes those employed and those looking for work – the unemployed.

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly interviews of 784,153 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 and September 2021 and includes 6,031 telephone and online interviews in September 2021. *The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or freelancers who are looking for more work.

Contact Roy Morgan to learn more about Australia’s unemployed and under-employed; who and where they are, and the challenges they face as they search for employment opportunities.

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to purchase employment profiles, including for Australians who are employed, unemployed, under-employed, employed part-time, employed full-time, retired, studying and many more.

For further information:

Roy Morgan Research cf. ABS Unemployment Estimates

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source October 2006 – December 2021. Average monthly interviews 4,000.
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actual data while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.

Roy Morgan Research cf. ABS Unemployment Estimates

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source January 2000 – December 2021. Average monthly interviews 4,000.
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actual data while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source April 1995 – December 2021. Average monthly interviews 4,000.
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actual data while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.

ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA
NOT THE ‘PERCEPTION’ OF UNEMPLOYMENT – JUNE 8, 2012

The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section of people aged 14+. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when. The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.
Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.
The ABS classifies a person as unemployed if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.
The ABS classifies a person as employed if, when surveyed, a person worked for one hour or more during the reference week for pay, profit, commission or payment in kind, or even if a person worked for one hour or more without pay in a family business or on a farm.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.
For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate. Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in a 2012 letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published.

http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Files/Papers/2012/20120603.pdf