ALP (56.5%) increases lead over the L-NP (43.5%) to the largest since the last election as Morrison Government mired in infighting in final weeks of year

ALP support is now at 56.5% (up 1% point since late November) cf. L-NP on 43.5% (down 1% point) on a two-party preferred basis according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention conducted over the last two weekends.

This is the largest two-party preferred lead held by the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election and exceeds the ALP’s lead during the height of the ‘2020 Bushfires Crisis’ (ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%).

The continuing swing to the ALP came as the Government struggled to get majority support for several bills it has been looking to introduce to Parliament including the establishment of a national corruption commission, reforms to voting laws to require voter ID and a bill to enshrine religious freedom to protect Australians from discrimination on the basis of religious belief or activity.

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be elected with a similar margin to that won by Harold Holt at the 1966 Federal Election (L-CP 56.9% cf. ALP 43.1%).

This Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention and Government Confidence was conducted via telephone and online interviewing over the last two weekends. Roy Morgan interviewed 2,805 Australian electors aged 18+ on the weekends of November 27/28 & December 4/5, 2021. There were 6% of electors (down 1% point from late November) who can’t say who they support.

Primary Voting Intention for the ALP now ahead of the L-NP

Primary support for the ALP increased 0.5% points to 36% in early December and is now clearly ahead of the L-NP, down 1% point to 34.5%. Support for the Greens was up 0.5% points to 12.5%.
Support for One Nation was unchanged on 3.5%, support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party was at 1% and support for Independents/Others was at 12.5%.

Voting Intention by State shows the ALP leading in all five mainland States

Voting analysis by State shows the ALP leading on a two-party preferred basis in all five mainland States – with its largest leads in South Australia, Victoria and NSW.

The ALP enjoys a large lead in Victoria on 58.5% (up 0.5% points since late November) compared to the L-NP on 41.5% (down 0.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This result represents a swing of 5.4% points to the ALP in Victoria since the 2019 Federal Election.

The ALP’s improvement in Victoria comes after large protests against the Andrews Government on a range of issues including new legislation on ‘extraordinary’ powers for the Premier to declare a pandemic, the Andrews’ Government enforcement of vaccine mandates and tough restrictions on Victorians who are choosing to remain unvaccinated against COVID-19.

The ALP has held its lead in NSW over the last two weeks with the ALP now on 55.5% (unchanged since late November) compared to the L-NP on 44.5% (unchanged). This result represents a swing of 7.8% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

There has been a significant swing to the ALP in Queensland with the party now ahead on a two-party preferred basis on 54.5% (up 3% points since late November) compared to the LNP on 45.5% (down 3% points). This result represents a swing of 12.9% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

The situation in Western Australia has tightened since late November with the ALP on 50.5% (down 3% points) cf. L-NP 49.5% (up 3% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This result represents a swing of 6.1% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

In South Australia the ALP is on 64.5% (up 9% points since late November) well ahead of the L-NP on 35.5% (down 9% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This represents a swing of 13.8% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election. The L-NP leads in Tasmania with the L-NP 51.5% cf. ALP 48.5%, representing a swing of 7.5% points to the L-NP since the 2019 Federal Election.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence down by 2pts to 91.5 in early December

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating dropped by 2ps to 91.5 in early December. Now 38%  (down 1.5% points) of Australians say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’, while 46.5%, up 0.5% points, say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

However, there remains a wide divergence of over 40pts between different States with Government Confidence above 100 only in Western Australia at an impressive 120.5 while being the neutral level of 100 in all five other States.

The State which has the least restrictions, New South Wales, has clearly the second highest Government Confidence Rating of 93.5, although still in negative territory it is above the national average. Just below the national average are Queensland and South Australia – both on 89.

In contrast, Government Confidence is well below the neutral level of 100 in the two southern States of Tasmania (81) and Victoria (80). Victoria continues to have a high caseload of COVID-19 with over 1,000 new cases reported nearly every day while Tasmania is set to re-open to the mainland in the coming weeks after closing its domestic borders for most of this year.

Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says the ALP has strengthened its lead on a two-party preferred basis over the L-NP as the Morrison Government struggled to stay together and ‘on message’ in the last few sitting weeks of the year:

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference? and “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

Australian Federal Voting Intention: Two-Party Preferred (2019-2021)

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=2,000. May 2019–Dec. 2021. Base: Australian electors 18+.

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