ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops a further 3.6pts to 100.7 as COVID-19 cases numbers remain stubbornly high in NSW, despite lockdown
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence plunged a further 3.6pts to 100.7 this week as daily NSW COVID-19 cases remain high despite the Greater Sydney lockdown. Consumer Confidence continues to remain well below the 2021 weekly average of 110.6, however it is still 11.7 points higher than the same week a year ago, July 25/26, 2020 (89.0).
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence plunged a further 3.6pts to 100.7 this week as daily NSW COVID-19 cases remain high despite the Greater Sydney lockdown. Consumer Confidence continues to remain well below the 2021 weekly average of 110.6, however it is still 11.7 points higher than the same week a year ago, July 25/26, 2020 (89.0).
Consumer Confidence fell in both major cities this week, down 2.2pts (-2.2%) to 99.3 in Sydney and down 6.8pts (-6.4%) to 99.0 in Melbourne. Consumer Confidence also fell significantly in Brisbane, however increased slightly in Adelaide as the state continues to record low COVID-19 case numbers.
The indices to drive Consumer Confidence lower this week were those related to prospects for the next year with those expecting to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year down significantly and those expecting ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next year also down.
Current financial conditions
- Now 25% (down 4ppts) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year and 27% (down 1ppt), say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.
Future financial conditions
- In addition, a plurality of 34% (down 4ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the lowest figure for this indicator since early October 2020) compared to 15% (down 2ppts) that expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.
Current economic conditions
- In a concerning development now less than one-in-eight Australians, 12% (down 3ppts) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months while just over a quarter, 27% (up 3ppts), expect ‘bad times’ (the highest figure for this indicator since late November 2020).
Future economic conditions
- In the longer term, just under a fifth of Australians, 19% (unchanged), are expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to 17% (unchanged) expecting ‘bad times’.
Time to buy a major household item
- A significant factor of this week’s decline related to whether now is a good or bad time to buy major household items with only 34% (down 2ppts), of Australians saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while 35% (up 5ppts) saying now is a ‘bad time to buy’ to put this indicator in negative territory for the first time since mid-October 2020 during Victoria’s second wave.
ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:
“Consumer confidence fell by 3.5% last week, to its lowest since early November 2020 right after Victoria’s long second lockdown. Confidence fell in both Sydney (-2.2%) and Melbourne (-6.4%), but rose in Adelaide a touch (0.5%). Even with a much higher case load and longer lockdown, confidence in Sydney is a bit higher than in Melbourne. We would note that even during Melbourne’s long lockdown in 2020 confidence levels in the two cities remained close. Sentiment declined in Brisbane (-6.1%) and Perth (-4.6%) despite the absence of lockdowns in those cities, further highlighting the interrelated nature of sentiment across Australia. Confidence remains well above the lows seen in the early stages of the pandemic, suggesting the economic hit from the current lockdowns will be less than that seen in the second quarter of 2020.”
Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
