ALP (52.5%) stretches lead over L-NP (47.5%) after Sydney and Melbourne extend lockdowns
ALP support has increased to 52.5% (up 2% points since mid-June) cf. L-NP on 47.5% (down 2% points) on a two-party preferred basis after Australia’s two largest cities of Sydney and Melbourne extended their recent lockdowns in mid-July according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention.
ALP support has increased to 52.5% (up 2% points since mid-June) cf. L-NP on 47.5% (down 2% points) on a two-party preferred basis after Australia’s two largest cities of Sydney and Melbourne extended their recent lockdowns in mid-July according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention.
If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be easily elected with a substantial majority similar to that won at the 2007 Federal Election which the ALP won with 52.7% of the vote.
Interviewing for the latest Roy Morgan Poll was conducted over the weekends of July 10/11 & 17/18, 2021 with a nationally representative cross-section of 2,737 Australian electors using a combination of telephone and online interviews (multi-mode).
Primary Voting Intention for the L-NP drops to 39% in July, just ahead of the ALP on 37%
Primary support for the L-NP dropped 2.5% points to 39% and is now just ahead of the ALP on 37% (up 2.5% points). Greens support was down 0.5% points to 11.5%.
Support for One Nation was down 0.5% points to 3% while support for Independents/Others has increased by 1% point to 9.5%.
Voting Intention by State shows ALP ahead in Victoria, NSW & WA, but L-NP leads in QLD
Voting analysis by State shows the ALP now leading in five out of Australia’s six States on a two-party preferred basis and behind the LNP only in Queensland – a State the ALP hold only six seats out of 30.
The ALP leads strongly in Victoria on 56.5% (up 1.5% points since mid-June) compared to the L-NP on 43.5% (down 1.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. Victoria was plunged into an unprecedented fifth lockdown on Friday July 16 and the results here indicate Prime Minister Morrison and the L-NP Government is being held to account for this latest lockdown.
This result represents a swing of 3.4% points to the ALP in Victoria since the 2019 Federal Election.
The ALP has also grabbed a narrow two-party preferred lead in NSW with the ALP on 50.5% (up 1.5% points since mid-June) cf. L-NP on 49.5% (down 1.5% points) and Western Australia with the ALP on 52.5% (up 4.5% points since mid-June) cf. L-NP on 47.5% (down 4.5% points).
The results for these two States represent significant swings to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election including a swing of 2.3% points in NSW and 8.1% points in Western Australia.
The L-NP has its strongest result In Queensland with the L-NP on 51.5% (down 4.5% points since mid-June) cf. ALP 48.5% (up 4.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. However, despite the LNP’s lead this represents a substantial swing of 6.9% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.
The ALP holds a two-party preferred lead in the smaller States with the ALP 51% (up 1.5% points since mid-June) cf. L-NP 49% (down 1.5% points) in South Australia. This represents a swing of 0.3% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election. In Tasmania the ALP 58% cf. L-NP 42% - a swing of 2% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.
Roy Morgan Government Confidence is just in positive territory at 103 in mid-July
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is down 11pts to 103 since mid-June. Now 43.5% of Australians say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’, down 5.5% points since mid-June, while 40.5% say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, up 5.5% points.
The latest Government Confidence Ratings by State paint a contrasting picture with the rating inversely related to the size of any COVID-19 outbreaks in each State.
Western Australia has the highest Government Confidence Rating of 117.5, and is now the only mainland State without a current outbreak of COVID-19. In second place is South Australia on 114.5, although interviewing for this result was completed before the latest outbreak in Adelaide was discovered. South Australia is now one of three mainland States in a lockdown.
In third place is the island State of Tasmania on 110.5 just ahead of Queensland on 105. Tasmania is one of only two States without any COVID-19 outbreaks while Queensland is currently dealing with a small outbreak although not in lockdown like other mainland counterparts.
Unsurprisingly the lowest Government Confidence is in the two largest States both dealing with COVID-19 outbreaks and multi-week lockdowns. Government Confidence in Victoria is at 99.5, just below the neutral level of 100, while Government Confidence in NSW is at 97.5 after suffering an 18pt decline since mid-June – the largest drop for any State.
Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan says the latest series of lockdowns which are being blamed on a slow vaccine roll-out have led to a significant drop in support for the L-NP Government with support back to where it was following Brittany Higgins’ allegations:
“Today’s Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention is not good news for the Federal Government with the ALP (52.5%) increasing its two party-preferred lead over the L-NP (47.5%) to its widest since April 2021 when allegations of sexual assault and rape were swirling around Canberra.
“The three lockdowns in Greater Sydney, Victoria, and now Adelaide, are clearly a big negative for the Morrison Government with many people blaming the slower than expected vaccine roll-out for the necessity of instituting fresh lockdowns in three States.
“The contrast with the heavily vaccinated United Kingdom is stark. Although the UK has not been a role-model for how to deal with COVID-19 during the past 18 months one part of their pandemic response that has been world-leading is their vaccine rollout – nearly 90% of adults in the UK have received at least one vaccine dose and two-thirds (67%) of adults are fully vaccinated.
“The high vaccination rates in the United Kingdom allowed the country to celebrate its ‘Freedom Day’ earlier this week with all restrictions on gathering and socialising ended while in Australia we had lockdown extensions in Sydney and Victoria and a new lockdown in Adelaide.
“The poor standing of the Government is reflected in the State-by-State voting results. The ALP continues to lead comfortably in Victoria: ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5% but has now taken the lead in both NSW: ALP 50.5% cf. L-NP 49.5% and Western Australia: ALP 52.5% cf. L-NP 47.5%.
“The only saving grace for the Government is that they continue to lead in Queensland: LNP 51.5% cf. ALP 48.5%. However, despite leading the current result for Queensland represents a swing to the ALP of 6.9% points since the 2019 Federal Election which is only exceeded by the 8.1% swing to the ALP in Western Australia over the same time period.
“These results spell trouble for the Government which currently holds 34 out of 46 seats in Queensland and WA and must hold onto most of these seats if it is to have any chance of winning the Federal Election next year.
“The main bright spot for the Government is that by the time the Federal Election rolls around in 8-9 months (it is due by May 2022), the vaccine roll-out will have been completed and they will be hoping the Australian economy has resumed growing strongly as it has after previous lockdowns have finished. That bounceback appears to be what they are counting on.”
Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference? and “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
This Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention and Roy Morgan Government Confidence was conducted via telephone and online interviewing last weekend. Roy Morgan interviewed 2,737 Australian electors aged 18+ on the weekends of July 10/11 & 17/18, 2021. A higher than usual 8.5% of electors (up 1% point from mid-June) can’t say who they support.
For further information:
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Contact |
Office |
Mobile |
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Gary Morgan: |
+61 3 9224 5213 |
+61 411 129 094 |
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Michele Levine: |
+61 3 9224 5215 |
+61 411 129 093 |
Australian Federal Voting Intention: Two-Party Preferred (2019-2021)
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=2,000. May 2019–July 2021. Base: Australian electors 18+.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
