New Zealand Labour/Greens support unchanged at 58.5% in February as COVID-19 vaccine rollout begins

The Labour/Greens government support is unchanged at 58.5% in February. However, support for the Labour Party is down by 2% points to 45% in February while support for the Greens increased 2% points to 13.5%.

Support for the main opposition National Party is up 4% points to 29% - the highest support for National since April 2020 during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Support for Act NZ is down by 1.5% points to 7.5% and back to its level at last year’s New Zealand Election while support for the Maori Party is down 1% point to 1%.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a NZ-wide cross-section of 926 electors during February. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed only 4% (up 1% point) didn’t name a party.

Labour/Greens (58.5%) maintain big lead over opposition National/Act NZ/Maori (37.5%)

In February 58.5% of electors supported the Labour/Greens governing partnership, unchanged on January. The governing parties were over 20% points ahead of the Parliamentary opposition National/ Act NZ/Maori Party on 37.5%, up 1.5% points since January.

A small minority of 4% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament. Of the parties outside Parliament, The Opportunities Party (TOP) was down 0.5% points to 1% in February and New Zealand First was down 0.5% points to 1.5%.

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating was down 3.5pts to 149.5 in February

A majority of 69.5% of New Zealand electors (down 2%) said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to only 20% (up 1.5%) who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’ creating a decrease of 3.5pts in the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating to 149.5 in February.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the long-awaited COVID-19 vaccine finally hit New Zealand’s shores in February with border and quarantine workers the first to ‘get the jab’:

New Zealand Party Vote: 2020-21

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – February 2021.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 924.

New Zealand Party Vote: NZ Govt. v Parliamentary Opposition

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – February 2021.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 924.

Roy Morgan NZ Government Confidence Rating vs. ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – February 2021.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 924.

Voting Intention Summary

The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the September 23, 2017 General Election:

*The 1996 Election was the first New Zealand Election contested via MMP (Mixed Member Proportional). At the 1996 Election the Greens Party contested as part of the “Alliance” political grouping with four other political parties. **The Maori Party was launched in July 2004. The Opportunities Party (TOP) was launched in November 2016.

Two-Party Preferred: Labour Party-led Government vs. Parliamentary Opposition Parties

*At the 2020 NZ Election the Labour party secured 50.01% of the vote which was enough to govern in their own right but Labour opted to sign a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens, who won 7.86% of the vote. There were three Parties elected to Parliament not in Government led by National (25.58%), Act NZ (7.59%) and the Maori Party (1.17%).