Australian workforce hits a record high in February as employment and unemployment both increase

Latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows 1.93 million Australians unemployed in February (up 250,000 on January) but under-employment was down 300,000 to 1.14 million.

• Over 12.7 million Australians were employed in February – the highest since early March:
  12,703,000 Australians were employed, up 28,000 from January driven by an increase in full-time employment, up 125,000 to 8,322,000. Part-time employment was down 97,000 to 4,381,000.
• Unemployment increased in February as Australians began looking for work:
  1,930,000 Australians were unemployed (13.2% of the workforce), up 250,000 from January. There were more people looking for full-time work (up 98,000 to 790,000), and part-time work (up 152,000 to 1,140,000).
• The workforce increased to a new record high as more people began looking for work:
  The workforce in February was 14,633,000 – comprised of 12,703,000 employed Australians (an increase of 28,000) and 1,930,000 unemployed Australians looking for work (up 250,000).

Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 13.2% for February is over 5% points higher than the current ABS estimate for January 2021 of 6.4%. However, the ABS figure for January counts as employed an additional 103,000 Australians who were working zero hours for ‘economic reasons’. If these non-workers are added back the ABS unemployment estimate for January increases to 981,000 (7.1%). The ABS also claims there are 1.13 million Australians (8.1%) under-employed for a total of 2.11 million unemployed or under-employed (15.2% of the workforce).

• Under-employment down in February as full-time employment increases and part-time employment falls for the second straight month:
  In addition to those who were unemployed, 1.14 million Australians (7.8% of the workforce) were under-employed – working part-time but looking for more work. This was a decrease of 300,000 on January.
• In total 3.07 million Australians (21.0% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in February, a decrease of 50,000 on January with the decrease driven by a fall in under-employment greater than the increase in unemployment according to the latest Roy Morgan employment estimates.

Compared to early March 2020, before the nation-wide lockdown was implemented, in February 2021 there were over 900,000 more Australians either unemployed or under-employed (+5.4% points).

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the results for February show a record high workforce participation rate as Australians facing the end of JobKeeper and the cutting back of JobSeeker join the workforce – driving both employment and unemployment higher:

Roy Morgan Unemployment & Under-employment (2019-2021)

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source January 2019 – February 2021. Average monthly interviews 5,000.
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actual data while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.

Unemployment again lowest in NSW and now highest in Queensland and WA

A look at the trends on a State-based level shows unemployment in NSW continues to be the lowest in the nation at 11.5% in February, although this represented an increase of 2.5% points from January.

Next best were South Australia on 12.4% (up 0.6% points) and Victoria on 12.7% (up 1.6% points) both with unemployment under the national average of 13.2%.

The States with the two most concerning levels of unemployment were Western Australia on 14.5% (up 1.1% points) and Queensland on 15.9% - although this was down 0.9% points on January the State still has the highest unemployment of any of the five mainland States.

Although unemployment surged around the country in February there was good news on the employment front for some workers. Full-time employment increased strongly in New South Wales and Victoria but was offset by larger falls in part-time employment.

In both Queensland and South Australia part-time employment increased strongly although full-time employment in both States was virtually unchanged from the month before.

The JobKeeper wage subsidy scheme was cut back to $1,000 per fortnight for full-time workers and $650 per fortnight for part-time workers at the start of the year and ends altogether at the end of the month.

The latest figures released by Treasury for the December quarter 2020 showed there were still around 1.6 million Australians receiving the JobKeeper wage subsidy at the end of 2020. This included 626,000 in Victoria (39% of all JobKeeper recipients), 491,000 in NSW (31%), 259,000 in Queensland (16%) and a further 233,000 (14%) spread across WA, SA, Tasmania, ACT & NT.

Even before the JobKeeper wage subsidy ends compared to a year ago unemployment in Victoria is now 5% points higher than February 2020 (7.7%), a larger increase than either New South Wales (4.2% points) or Queensland (+4.6% points). As these figures illustrate the largest impact from the withdrawal of JobKeeper is set to be in Victoria in which nearly one-in-five employees were receiving the wage subsidy at the end of 2020.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the staged withdrawal of Government stimulus is causing large gyrations in the Australian workforce as uneconomic jobs are cut back while industries that are ‘booming’ are hiring new workers:

Roy Morgan Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimates

*Workforce includes those employed and those looking for work – the unemployed.

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 739,888 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 and February 2021 and includes 6,011 telephone and online interviews in February 2021. *The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or freelancers who are looking for more work.

Roy Morgan Research cf. ABS Unemployment Estimates

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source October 2006 – February 2021. Average monthly interviews 4,000. Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actual data while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source January 2000 – February 2021. Average monthly interviews 4,000. Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actual data while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source April 1995 – February 2021. Average monthly interviews 4,000. Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actual data while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.