Over 2.6 million Australians drive diesel vehicles

New data from Roy Morgan shows 2,607,000 Australians now drive diesel vehicles representing about one-in-six of the country’s 16.2 million car drivers.

Diesel fuel cars are second only to petrol vehicles which are driven by over 12.9 million Australians and comprise around 80% of Australia’s vehicle fleet. Now 270,000 Australians drive hybrid (petrol & electric) vehicles, 200,000 drive LPG (gas) vehicles and around 40,000 drive fully electric vehicles.

Earlier today, General Motors announced plans to become ‘carbon neutral’ by 2040 and it was aiming to sell all its new cars and SUVs with ‘zero tailpipe admissions’ by 2035 and will cease the sale of diesel and gasoline powered cars. GM joins a growing list of automakers who are moving away from diesel as an engine option.

Toyota has Australia’s largest fleet of diesel vehicles at 482,000

Australia’s 2.6 million diesel vehicles are dominated by five manufacturers who comprise over half the total fleet between them. The top ten manufacturers comprise around three-quarters of the market.

Toyota leads the pack with 482,000 diesel vehicles ahead of Mitsubishi (226,000), Ford (224,000), Holden (222,000), Hyundai (181,000), Volkswagen (160,000), Nissan (154,000) and Mazda (148,000).

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source Australia, November 2019 – October 2020, n=44,651. Base: Australian drivers aged 18+.

Notably there are some manufacturers that have a far larger proportion of their vehicles driven on Australian roads as diesel vehicles than others including Mitsubishi, Volkswagen, Isuzu UTE, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Jeep, Volvo, Peugeot and Land Rover – all at more than 20% of their total vehicle fleets.

Consideration for diesel and LPG based vehicles slides as ‘electric-based’ alternatives rise

Diesel, and to a much lesser extent LPG (gas), have been the main alternatives to petrol based vehicles until recently although consideration for buying both has been declining for several years now as hybrid (petrol & electric) and fully electric (plug-in) have both increased steadily.

Hybrid (petrol & electric) vehicles are now clearly the preferred alternative to petrol based vehicles with 52.6% of Australians seriously considering buying these vehicles, up 5.6% points on five years ago, and overtaking diesel vehicles during this time period – now on 39.4% (down 9.5% points).

Also poised to overtake diesel vehicles are fully electric (plug-in) vehicles now being seriously considered by 38.5% of Australians to buy, up a stunning 11.3% points in only five years while only 21.3% (down 4.9% points) are seriously considering buying LPG (gas) vehicles.

The rise in popularity of environmentally friendly vehicles has significantly increased the number of consumers looking to drive hybrid and electric vehicles for their next car.

% of drivers who would seriously consider buying one of the petrol alternative vehicles

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source Australia, November 2014 – October 2016, n=41,471; November 2019 – October 2020, n=44,651. Base: Australians drivers aged 18+.

These are the latest findings from the Roy Morgan Single Source survey derived from in-depth interviews with over 1,000 Australians each week and over 50,000 each year.

Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says General Motors’ CEO Mary Barra’s announcement that America’s largest automotive manufacturer will cease sales of all diesel and gasoline powered cars by 2035 is a watershed moment for the global automotive industry:

“General Motors CEO Mary Barra’s declaration that America’s largest automotive manufacturer would target carbon neutrality by 2040 and zero sales of ‘vehicles with tailpipe emissions’ by 2035 represents a seismic shift for the global vehicle industry.

“Vehicles that run on fossil fuels such as diesel and petrol currently represent around 98%[1] of GM’s sales today and reducing that to zero in fewer than 15 years is a massive undertaking. The move by GM will fundamentally transform the entire automotive industry worldwide as other manufacturers seek to remain competitive with one of the global leaders.

“The pressure from electric vehicle maker Tesla has clearly played a role in Barra’s decision. Tesla’s market capitalisation today is over $1 trillion AUD ($792 billion USD) and greater than the combined market capitalisation of General Motors, Toyota, Ford, Volkswagen, Daimler, BMW, Honda and Fiat-Chrysler – eight of the world’s largest automotive manufacturers by revenue.

“In Australia about one-sixth (16%) of Australia’s current car fleet is powered by diesel while around four-fifths (80%) is petrol-powered with the remained split between hybrid (petrol & electric), LPG (gas) and fully electric vehicles.

“Toyota is the clear market leader in Australia and about 19% of diesel vehicles on Australian roads are Toyotas while around a quarter of diesel vehicles are split fairly evenly between Mitsubishi, Ford and Holden. All four were manufacturers of cars in Australia with Mitsubishi ceasing manufacturing in March 2008, Ford in October 2016 and both Holden & Toyota a year later in October 2017.

“The lack of local automotive manufacturing means Australian vehicle buyers are at the mercy of the international markets. The good news is that an increasing proportion of Australians are already seriously considering buying either hybrid vehicles (52.6%, up 5.6% points since 2015) and fully electric vehicles (38.5%, up 11.3% points).

“In contrast, those seriously considering buying diesel vehicles has been falling for years and is down by nearly 10% points over the last five years at 39.4% (down 9.5% points). Also declining are LPG powered vehicles and in mid-2020 Australia’s vehicle fleet comprised more hybrid vehicles than LPG vehicles for the first time ever.

“This new data is derived from qualitative and quantitative interviews with over 50,000 Australians each year as part of the Roy Morgan Single Source survey and will be of keen interest to hybrid and electric car manufacturers who will be looking to offer Australia’s 2.6 million drivers of diesel vehicles a clean alternative in the years ahead.”

[1] The figure of 98% of GM’s sales today is referenced from the Wall Street Journal article “GM to Phase Out Gas- and Diesel-Powered Vehicles by 2035” by Mike Colias on January 28, 2021. Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/gm-sets-2035-target-to-phase-out-gas-and-diesel-powered-vehicles-globally-11611850343.