ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence starts 2021 on a high – up 1.8pts to 113.8 in January
New Zealand Consumer Confidence was up 1.8pts to 113.8 in January, led by optimism about the future. Consumer confidence is now not far off its historical average of around 120.
- The proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item lifted another 3 points.
- Inflation expectations lifted slightly, and are historically elevated.
Consumer confidence remains well short of 2017-19 levels, unlike business sentiment, but is edging closer to its historical average.Turning to the detail:
- Perceptions of current financial situations was unchanged at +4.
- A net 28% of consumers expect to be better off this time next year, up 3.
- A net 21% think it is a good time to buy a major household item, up 3 points. Data shows that people have been buying durables despite the recent weakness in this series, reflecting a substitution from overseas holidays and the strength of the housing market.
- Perceptions regarding the next year’s economic outlook lifted 5 points to -1%. The five-year outlook eased 1 point to +17%.
- House price inflation expectations lifted another 0.2%pts to 6.9% but regional movements were mixed. They are strongest in the North Island excluding Auckland and Wellington (7.9%).
- CPI inflation expectations lifted 0.2%pts to 4.5%. Household inflation expectations are volatile and average well above actual outcomes, but it is notable that they have been persistently high in recent months.
Household house price expectations are the highest since the question was first asked in late 2010, but the increase is slowing and this indicator does tend to lag the market rather than predict it.
Households still report wariness regarding whether it is a good time to buy a major household item. The latter has historically been the best retail spending indicator in the survey, as it reflects job security, among other factors. However retail spending has outperformed this indicator, likely reflecting in part a reallocation of spending away from international holidays. The strong housing market is likely also contributing, though its relationship with consumer confidence has become less reliable in recent years.
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Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.
You can also view our monitor of Quarterly New Zealand Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
