No ‘second honeymoon’ for PM Ardern with Labour support dropping after NZ Election as Greens & Act NZ gain
There has been no ‘second honeymoon’ for Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern after securing an easy victory at October’s General Election with support for Labour dropping 6% points to 44% in November – the lowest support for Labour since March 2020.
There has been no ‘second honeymoon’ for Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern after securing an easy victory at October’s General Election with support for Labour dropping 6% points to 44% in November – the lowest support for Labour since March 2020.
However, support for ‘Cooperation Agreement’ partners the Greens has experienced a post-election bounce and increased 4.6% points to 12.5% as the Party accepted two Ministerial portfolios for co-leaders James Shaw and Marama Davidson as part of the agreement with Labour.
Support for the main opposition National Party is at 25.5%, virtually unchanged from their election result of 25.6% but support for Act NZ has increased strongly to a record high of 10.5%, up 2.9% points. Support for the Maori Party is now at 1%, virtually unchanged from their election result of 1.2%.
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a NZ-wide cross-section of 939 electors during November. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 3% didn’t name a party.
Support for Labour/Greens at 56.5% is well ahead of National/Act NZ/Maori Party on 37%
In November 56.5% of electors supported the Labour/Greens governing partnership, down 1.4% since the Election on October 17, 2020. The governing parties were well ahead of the Parliamentary opposition National/ Act NZ/Maori Party on 37%, up 2.7% since the Election.
A small minority of 6.5% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament.
- Of the parties outside Parliament, The Opportunities Party (TOP) was up 0.5% to 2% in November and New Zealand First was down 1.1% to 1.5%.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating virtually unchanged at 149.5 in November
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was virtually unchanged at a very high 149.5 in November, up 2pts from 147.5 in October. The majority (69.5%) of New Zealand electors (up 1% since October) said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to only 20% (down 1%) who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern secured a historic victory in October becoming the first leader to secure a majority of seats in the Mixed Member Proportional system since its introduction in 1996:
“Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern won a resounding victory for Labour at the New Zealand Election in mid-October securing 50.01% of the vote and winning a majority of 65 seats in the 120 seat Parliament.
“Despite winning a majority, Prime Minister Ardern decided to sign a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens to increase the governing majority to 75/120 seats with the Greens co-leaders James Shaw and Marama Davidson securing the Ministries of Climate Change and the Prevention of Family and Sexual Violence outside cabinet.
“It appears the decision for Labour to govern with the Greens may not have been to the favour of all Labour voters with their support dropping 6% points to 44% post-election, its lowest level of support since pre-pandemic in March 2020.
“However, the Greens agreement to support a Labour Government and the Ministries they gained as part of the agreement has been positively received with their support increasing to 12.5% after the election, up 4.6% on their election result and their highest level of support in a Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll since mid-2017.
“Support for the main Opposition National is unchanged since the election at 25.5% but there has been a continued surge in support for Act NZ, up 2.9% to 10.5%.
“This is the highest level of support Act NZ have ever received in a Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll stretching back over two decades. The surge in support for Act NZ suggests the libertarian-inclined party may mount a challenge to National’s standing on the right of the political spectrum over the next three years under the leadership team of David Seymour and Brooke van Velden.
“Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern secured a majority on the back of a decisive and successful response to the COVID-19 pandemic earlier this year, but with the worst of the crisis apparently now behind us there are many key challenges that await the new Government.
“Key issues facing the Ardern-led Labour Government heading into 2021 are the potential opening of borders with Australia to two-way travel (New Zealanders are already allowed to visit Australia without being subject to quarantine), the need to provide more affordable housing particularly in Auckland and the broader economic recovery from COVID-19 over the next year as vaccines are rolled out around the world.”
New Zealand Party Vote: 2020
Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January – November 2020. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 922.
New Zealand Party Vote: NZ Govt. v Parliamentary Opposition
Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January – November 2020. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 922.
Roy Morgan NZ Government Confidence Rating vs. ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence
Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January – November 2020. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 922.
Voting Intention Summary
The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the September 23, 2017 General Election:
| PARTY VOTE | Labour | Green Party* | National | ACT NZ | Maori Party** | TOP** | NZ First | Other |
| ELECTIONS | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % |
| October 12, 1996* | 28.19 | 10.10 | 33.87 | 6.10 | n/a | n/a | 13.35 | 8.39 |
| November 27, 1999 | 38.74 | 5.16 | 30.50 | 7.04 | n/a | n/a | 4.26 | 14.30 |
| July 27, 2002 | 41.26 | 7.00 | 20.93 | 7.14 | n/a | n/a | 10.38 | 13.29 |
| September 17, 2005 | 41.10 | 5.30 | 39.10 | 1.51 | 2.12 | n/a | 5.72 | 5.15 |
| November 8, 2008 | 33.99 | 6.72 | 44.93 | 3.65 | 2.39 | n/a | 4.07 | 4.25 |
| November 26, 2011 | 27.48 | 11.06 | 47.31 | 1.07 | 1.43 | n/a | 6.59 | 5.06 |
| September 20, 2014 | 25.13 | 10.70 | 47.04 | 0.69 | 1.32 | n/a | 8.66 | 6.46 |
| September 23, 2017 | 36.89 | 6.27 | 44.45 | 0.50 | 1.18 | 2.44 | 7.20 | 1.07 |
| October 17, 2020 | 50.01 | 7.86 | 25.58 | 7.59 | 1.17 | 1.51 | 2.60 | 3.70 |
| ROY MORGAN POLL | ||||||||
| March 2020 | 42.5 | 11.5 | 37 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| April 2020 | 55 | 7 | 30.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 |
| May 2020 | 56.5 | 7 | 26.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 1 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| June 2020 | 54.5 | 9 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| July 2020 | 53.5 | 8 | 26.5 | 6.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2 |
| August 2020 | 48 | 11.5 | 28.5 | 6 | 0.5 | 1 | 2.5 | 2 |
| September 2020 | 47.5 | 9.5 | 28.5 | 7 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3 |
| NZ Election 2020 | 50 | 7.9 | 25.6 | 7.6 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 3.7 |
| November 2020 | 44 | 12.5 | 25.5 | 10.5 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 3 |
*The 1996 Election was the first New Zealand Election contested via MMP (Mixed Member Proportional). At the 1996 Election the Greens Party contested as part of the “Alliance” political grouping with four other political parties.
**The Maori Party was launched in July 2004. The Opportunities Party (TOP) was launched in November 2016.
Two-Party Preferred: Labour Party-led Government vs. Parliamentary Opposition Parties
| Labour Party-led Government
(Labour, Greens) |
Parliamentary Opposition Parties (National, Act NZ & Maori) |
|||
| Election, October 17, 2020* | 57.87 | 34.33 | ||
| ROY MORGAN NEW ZEALAND POLL | ||||
| 2020 | ||||
| Labour wins the NZ Election and, despite securing a majority of seats in Parliament, signs a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens – October 31, 2020 |
||||
| November 2020 | 56.5 | 37 | ||
*At the 2020 NZ Election the Labour party secured 50.01% of the vote which was enough to govern in their own right but Labour opted to sign a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens, who won 7.86% of the vote. There were three Parties elected to Parliament not in Government led by National (25.58%), Act NZ (7.59%) and the Maori Party (1.17%).
Browse our New Zealand Electorate Profiles.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
