Big swing to the ALP in Queensland in the final two weeks secures re-election as One Nation support drops
The ALP Government was re-elected in Queensland on the weekend as a swing to the ALP in the final two weeks meant ALP primary support increased 4.9% from the 2017 Queensland Election to 40.3%. LNP primary support also increased, up 2% to 35.7%. The increases for both major parties came at the expense of One Nation’s primary support which dropped 6.7% to 7%.
The swing to the ALP was cemented as Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk announced on Friday October 30 that the Queensland border would re-open to all of regional NSW from Tuesday November 3 but remain closed to both Greater Sydney as well as the entire State of Victoria.
The Roy Morgan Poll conducted early in the election campaign on October 12-15, 2020 correctly predicted swings to both the ALP and LNP and a swing away from One Nation and showed a majority of Queenslanders in favour of Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s hard border policy with New South Wales.
A majority of 53% of Queenslanders did not want the NSW border opened in early October and this policy was highly popular with both ALP supporters (77% against opening the NSW border) and Greens supporters (81% against opening the NSW border).
One Nation supporters were more evenly split on whether the border to NSW should re-open but the split illustrates how the issue helped secure the ALP victory. A majority of One Nation supporters (63%) supported opening the border to NSW however a significant minority, 37%, said the border should remain closed. It was this group that most likely swung to the ALP and contributed to the 4.9% swing that powered Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s victory.
The continued swing to the ALP strengthened after One Nation Leader Pauline Hanson attacked Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s policy on the NSW Border in October and accused the Premier of playing politics with the issue rather than relying only on the health advice of Queensland’s Chief Health Officer.
On Sky News Australia One Nation Leader Pauline Hanson said: (October 7, 2020).
“That’s exactly what she (Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk) said. She said that the borders will be closed until the day after the election which is the first of November.
“Now let’s go back a few months ago and she said when Jeannette Young the Chief Health Officer said that ‘No, for looking out for our own people here we must keep the borders shut.’ And Annastacia said, ‘No, it’s all what the Chief Health Officer, this is the advice that we’ve had, it’s nothing to do with us, it’s with her.’
“Now the Chief Health Officer has come out this week (mid-October) saying ‘There’s no reason to keep the border shut, we can handle this; we know how to handle it’. And Annastacia says, ‘No, we’re keeping the border shut’.
“So, all along, as I said, it is Annastacia Palaszczuk pushing her own agenda, keeping the borders shut, had nothing to do with the Chief Medical Officer and she used that as an excuse.”
Roy Morgan Queensland Poll compared to the 2020 Queensland Election Results
| Party | 2017 Queensland Election Nov. 25, 2017 | Roy Morgan Poll Oct. 12-15, 2020 | 2020 Queensland Election Oct. 31, 2020 | Change since the 2017 Queensland Election | Change since Roy Morgan Poll Oct. 12-15, 2020 |
| % | % | % | % | % | |
| ALP | 35.4% | 36.0% | 40.3% | +4.9% | +4.3% |
| LNP | 33.7% | 35.0% | 35.7% | +2.0% | +0.7% |
| Greens | 10.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% | -1.0% | -1.0% |
| One Nation | 13.7% | 12.0% | 7.0% | -6.7% | -5.0% |
| Katter | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.6% | +0.3% | +0.1% |
| Others | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.4% | +0.5% | +0.9% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | - |
The final Roy Morgan Poll conducted early in the election campaign did pick up the swing to the ALP and away from One Nation however the strength of the swing increased after Hanson’s comments. This final Roy Morgan Queensland Poll did show the ALP (51%) leading on a two-party preferred basis over the LNP (49%).
Roy Morgan was the most accurate pollster to predict the result of the recent New Zealand Election with big swings to both Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Party (+12.3%) and the right-wing libertarian Act NZ (+7.5%) party while there were big swings away from the main Opposition National (-17.7%) and also the centre-right New Zealand First (-4.5%) party of former Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters.
See more detail on Roy Morgan’s accurate predictions for the 2020 New Zealand Election here.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
