ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 2.5pts to 90.2 as new outbreaks of COVID-19 continue in NSW & Queensland
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence dropped 2.5pts to 90.2 on August 29/30, 2020 and is now 24.2pts lower than a year ago on the comparable weekend of August 31/ September 1, 2019 (114.4) and 3.6pts below the 2020 weekly average of 93.8.
Driving the fall this week was decreasing confidence across all five indices led by confidence dropping about personal financial situations.
Current financial conditions
- Now 23% (down 2ppts) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year and 35% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.
Future financial conditions
- In addition, 34% (down 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year compared to 19% (up 1ppt) that expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.
Current economic conditions
- However 7% (unchanged) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months while 48% (up 2ppts), expect ‘bad times’.
Future financial conditions
- In the longer term, around a sixth, 16% (down 3ppts) of Australians are expecting ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next five years compared to 20% (down 1ppt) expecting ‘bad times’.
Time to buy a major household item
- A decreasing proportion of Australians, 32% (down 1ppt), say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 39% (up 2ppts), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.
ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:
“Confidence declined last week, after two successive gains. The weakness was predominantly due to declines outside of Victoria and New South Wales. Confidence is now below the neutral level of 100 in all the major cities. Encouragingly, confidence actually rose in Victoria. The continued drop in new COVID-19 cases in Melbourne may be giving hope that the severity of the lockdown can be eased as planned. There is still work to be done, however. In the meantime, confidence may be challenged by the expected confirmation this week that Australia’s economy contracted at a record rate in the second quarter.”
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
