L-NP (51.5%) increases lead over ALP (48.5%) in mid-July as second wave of COVID-19 hits Victoria

Support for the L-NP has increased to 51.5% cf. ALP 48.5% on a two-party preferred basis according to the Morgan Poll over the weekends of July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020 with a nationally representative cross-section of 2,589 Australian electors interviewed using a combination of telephone and online interviews.

L-NP support is up 1% point from mid-June as a second wave of COVID-19 has hit Victoria, and to a lesser extent New South Wales, over the last few weeks.

Support for the L-NP on a two-party preferred basis is strongest in Queensland: L-NP 58% cf. ALP 42%, WA: L-NP 53.5% cf. ALP 46.5%, SA: L-NP 53% cf. ALP 47% and NSW: L-NP 52.5% cf. ALP 47.5%.

However, the ALP leads on a two-party preferred basis in both Victoria: ALP 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5% and Tasmania: ALP 58% cf. L-NP 42%.

Primary Voting Intention

Primary support for the L-NP has increased to 43.5% (up 1% point since mid-June) and is now a full 10% ahead of the  ALP on 33.5% (down 1%).

Greens support is up 0.5% to 11.0% while support for One Nation is at 2.5% (down 1.5%). Support for Independents/Others is up 1% to 9.5%.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence down 9.5pts to 114.5 in July – dramatically down by 16pts to 104 in Victoria

In contrast to the improvement in political support for the L-NP Government the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has declined substantially over the last month, down 9.5pts to 114.5 in mid-July. Government Confidence is now at it’s lowest since mid-March before the COVID-19 pandemic had fully impacted on Australia.

Now just under half, 49% (down 4.5% since mid-June) of Australians say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’, while only 34.5% (up 5%) say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

There are large differences between States when it comes to Government Confidence. Unsurprisingly, Government Confidence has fallen most drastically in Victoria, down 16pts to only 104.

Three States are clustered around the national average with Government Confidence in Queensland at 115 just ahead of New South Wales on 113.5 and Tasmania on 111.

However, Western Australia maintains a very high rating of 136 in July ahead of South Australia on 130.

Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan says a new wave of COVID-19 is now hitting Australia and early forecasts of a quick ‘snapback’ for the economy have receded:

“The L-NP Federal Government (51.5%) has increased its lead over the ALP (48.5%) over the last month as a new wave of COVID-19 has impacted heavily on Victoria with the Melbourne metropolitan area now in a second lockdown – and mandatory mask wearing now enforced.

“The new wave of COVID-19 has prompted other States to keep their borders closed to Victorians and NSW has closed the border to its southern neighbour for the first time in a century.

“Support for the L-NP is highest in its traditional strongholds of Queensland and Western Australia but the Government has also enjoyed an increase in support in Victoria compared to a month ago – though it still trails the ALP on a two-party preferred basis.

“The renewed threat posed by  COVID-19 has dealt a blow to hopes of a quick ‘snap-back’ of the Australian economy. The Government support packages JobKeeper and JobSeeker have been extended for an extra six months until March 2021, albeit at reduced rates, as international travel remains closed and State borders within Australia prevent easy travel between States.

“In a sign of the tough economic times brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic Treasurer Josh Frydenberg this week unveiled Australia’s largest Federal Budget deficit since World War II of $86 billion for the 2019/20 fiscal year and a forecast Budget deficit blow out to more than $184 billion for the current fiscal year.

“Only a few months ago before COVID-19 came along the Federal Government was forecasting a Federal Budget surplus for 2019/20 of $5 billion. This would have been Australia’s first Federal Budget surplus since the Global Financial Crisis but the severe economic contraction brought on by COVID-19 means Government spending is set to remain at elevated levels for years to come.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference? and “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

This Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention and Roy Morgan Government Confidence was conducted via telephone and online interviewing last weekend. Roy Morgan interviewed 2,589 Australian electors aged 18+ on the weekends of July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020. A higher than usual 8% of electors (up 1% from a month ago) can’t say who they support.

Australian Two-Party Preferred Voting Intention

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by Federal Voting Intention

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by Region

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by State

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by Gender

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by Age

For further information: