New Zealanders far more optimistic about 2018 than their Australian counterparts
A special Roy Morgan New Zealand SMS Survey taken in mid-November shows 53% of New Zealanders think 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017, compared to only 26% that say 2018 will be ‘worse’ and a further 21% expect 2018 will be ‘the same’ as 2017.
Although the 53% of New Zealanders saying 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017 is lower than the last time this survey was conducted in 2009 when a record high 73% of New Zealanders expected a ‘better’ year following a sharp recession in NZ, New Zealanders are far more optimistic about 2018 than their Australian counterparts. Only 31% of Australians expect 2018 to be ‘better’ than 2017. See here for more details on the Australian results.
Driving the positive result are supporters of new Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and the Labour-NZ First-Greens Government she leads. 74% of Labour supporters, 67% of NZ First supporters and an even higher 82% of Greens supporters expect 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017 compared to only 30% of National supporters – further details below.
This special Roy Morgan SMS Survey was conducted in mid-November with a cross-section of 1,233 New Zealanders aged 18+.
Next Year – Better or Worse? (New Zealand)
Source: Roy Morgan telephone & SMS surveys in New Zealand 1989-2017 with an average of 1,000 New Zealanders aged 18+ interviewed each year. Question: “As far as you are concerned, do you think that 2018 will be better, worse, or the same as 2017?”
Next Year – Better or Worse? (New Zealand)
“As far as you are concerned, do you think that 2018 will be better, worse, or the same as 2017?”
| 1989 | 1990 | 1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995* | 1996* | 1997* | 1998 | 1999 | |
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| Better | 56 | 41 | 33 | 46 | 46 | 61 | n/a | n/a | n/a | 62 | 56 |
| Same | 16 | 17 | 29 | 34 | 42 | 27 | n/a | n/a | n/a | 22 | 34 |
| Worse | 28 | 42 | 38 | 20 | 12 | 12 | n/a | n/a | n/a | 16 | 10 |
| TOTAL | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
*This survey wasn’t conducted between 1995-1997.
| 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2017 | |
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| Better | 62 | 65 | 63 | 59 | 60 | 59 | 65 | 57 | 44 | 73 | 53 |
| Same | 32 | 24 | 23 | 27 | 27 | 22 | 22 | 24 | 16 | 12 | 21 |
| Worse | 6 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 19 | 13 | 19 | 40 | 15 | 26 |
| TOTAL | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
Analysis by Age & Gender – Next Year ‘Better’ or ‘Worse’
Source: This special Roy Morgan SMS Survey was conducted in mid-November with a cross-section of 1,233 New Zealanders aged 18+.
In contrast to Australia, it is women in New Zealand who are more optimistic than men with 58% of women expecting a ‘better’ 2018 than 2017 compared to 48% of men.
Analysing the results by age shows those aged under 50 are all very confident about 2018 including 58% of 18-24yr olds, 56% of 25-34yr olds and 57% of 35-49yr olds that expect 2018 to be ‘better’ than 2018 compared to 51% of 50-64yr olds and 45% of those aged 65+.
| Total NZ |
Gender | Age | Total Australia |
||||||
| Men | Women | 18-24 | 25-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | |||
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| Better | 53 | 48 | 58 | 58 | 56 | 57 | 51 | 45 | 31 |
| Same | 21 | 22 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 18 | 21 | 26 | 39 |
| Worse | 26 | 30 | 22 | 21 | 22 | 25 | 28 | 29 | 30 |
| TOTAL | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
Analysis by Region – Next Year ‘Better’ or ‘Worse’
Source: This special Roy Morgan SMS Survey was conducted in mid-November with a cross-section of 1,233 New Zealanders aged 18+.
Analysing by region shows little difference across New Zealand with slight majorities in each region saying 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017 and around a quarter of respondents in each region saying 2018 will be ‘worse’ than 2017.
Nevertheless, New Zealand’s most optimistic region is New Zealand’s biggest city of Auckland in which 55% of respondents say 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017 followed by 54% of respondents in Canterbury and 53% of respondents in the capital Wellington.
| Region | |||||||
| Total NZ |
Auckland | Wellington | Other North Island |
Canterbury | Other South Island |
Total Australia |
|
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| Better | 53 | 55 | 53 | 50 | 54 | 53 | 31 |
| Same | 21 | 20 | 19 | 22 | 22 | 26 | 39 |
| Worse | 26 | 25 | 28 | 28 | 24 | 21 | 30 |
| TOTAL | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
Analysis by Voting Intention – Next Year ‘Better’ or ‘Worse’
Analysing the results by voting intention shows it is supporters of the new Labour-New Zealand First-Greens Government that are most optimistic about 2018 with 74% of Labour supporters, 67% of New Zealand First supporters and 82% of Greens supporters expecting 2018 to be ‘better’ than 2017. However, only 30% of National supporters expect 2018 to be ‘better’ while 43% of National supporters say 2018 will be ‘worse’ than 2017.
| Total NZ |
Electors | Labour | National | NZ First | Greens | Other | Can’t say | Non electors | Total Australia |
|
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| Better | 53 | 53 | 74 | 30 | 67 | 82 | 42 | 27 | 59 | 31 |
| Same | 21 | 22 | 18 | 27 | 17 | 14 | 18 | 49 | 13 | 39 |
| Worse | 26 | 25 | 8 | 43 | 16 | 4 | 40 | 24 | 28 | 30 |
| TOTAL | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
Michele Levine, Chief Executive Officer, Roy Morgan Research, says:
“A majority of 53% of New Zealanders say 2018 will be a ‘better’ year than 2017 compared to only 26% that say it will be ‘worse’ and this optimism has clearly been driven by the recent election victory of new Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern.
“It is supporters of the new Labour-New Zealand First-Greens Government that have a very optimistic view of next year with 74% of Labour supporters, 67% of New Zealand First supporters and 82% of Greens supporters saying 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017 compared to only 30% of National supporters.
“In addition, a striking majority of 58% of women believer 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017 compared to 48% of men while a majority of all age groups under 65 also believe 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017 including 58% of 18-24yr old, 56% of 25-34yr olds and 57% of 35-49yr olds.
“Comparing sentiment in New Zealand to their counterparts across the Tasman in Australia shows New Zealanders are far more optimistic than Australians – only 31% of Australians say 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017, a record low result for the survey first conducted in 1980.”
Finding No. 7415 – This special Roy Morgan SMS Survey was conducted with a representative cross-section of 1,233 New Zealanders on November 15-20, 2017. They were asked “Do you think that 2018 will be better, worse, or the same as 2017?”
Results analysed by Roy Morgan Helix Personas are available on a subscription basis.
www.HelixPersonas.com.au
For further information:
| Contact | Office | Mobile |
| Gary Morgan: | +61 3 9224 5213 | +61 411 129 094 |
| Michele Levine: | +61 3 9224 5215 | +61 411 129 093 |
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
