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Morgan Poll Most Accurate & first to suggest ‘Hung Parliament’ by Gary Morgan, Michele Levine and Julian McCrann

The 7NEWS Morgan Poll was the first poll to call a ‘Hung Parliament,' first announced by Michele Levine on Insiders (ABC 2 TV) on Sunday August 15, 2010. (Morgan - ‘Hung Parliament,’ Newspoll – ‘Hung Parliament,’ Galaxy and Nielsen - both ALP win) – Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on Primary vote for the 2007 Federal Election!

The new Government of Australia is now known after Australia’s first ‘Hung Parliament’ since the 1940s.

As of the final AEC 2010 Federal election figures the 7 NEWS Morgan Poll was clearly the most accurate of the 4 major polls. The 7NEWS Morgan Poll had a Primary vote average error on the parties — ALP, L-NP, Greens and Independent/ Others of only 0.7%. Our Two Party preferred vote had an average error of only 0.9%.

The Newspoll Primary vote average error was 1.05%; Two Party preferred vote had an average error of 0.1%.The Nielsen Primary vote average error was 1.1%; Two-Party preferred vote had an average error of 1.9%; The Galaxy Primary vote average error was 1.3%; Two-Party preferred vote had an average error of 1.9%.

Below is the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) % vote count as of now compared with the final 7NEWS Morgan Poll released on www.roymorgan.com at 1.26am Saturday morning and released at 7am on Saturday Morning Ch 7 Sunrise (Aug 21, 2010), and again reported just after 10am by Michele Levine on ABC 24 TV.

 

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION — Primary Vote Predictions

 

Federal election

August 21,

2010

Aug 20

Aug 17-18

Aug 17-19

Aug 17-18

 

Telephone

Telephone

Telephone

Telephone

 

7News

Morgan Poll

Newspoll

The Australian

Nielsen

The Age & SMH

Galaxy

Herald-Sun

& Daily Telegraph

 

Actual Result*

%

error

%

error

%

error

%

error

     

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sample Size

(12,402,364)

(1,872)

(2,507)

(2,040)

(1,200)

     

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ALP

38.0

39

+1.0

36.2

-1.8

39

+1.0

38

0

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

L-NP

43.6

42.5

-1.1

43.4

-0.2

41.5

-2.1

41

-2.6

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Greens

11.8

11.5

-0.3

13.9

+2.1

13

+1.2

14

+2.2

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ind/Other

6.6

7

+0.4

6.5

-0.1

6.5

-0.1

7

+0.4

     

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Av. error on all parties

   

0.7

 

1.05

 

1.1

 

1.3

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION — Two Party Preferred Predictions

ALP

50.1

51

+0.9

50.2

-0.1

52

+1.9

52

+1.9

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LN-P

49.9

49

-0.9

49.8

+0.1

48

-1.9

48

-1.9

     

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ALP Lead

0.2

2

 

0.4

 

4

 

4

 

     

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ave error

   

0.9

 

0.1

 

1.9

 

1.9

Australian Electoral Commission (http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-15508-NAT.htm). Final AEC Election results.

 

The 7NEWS Morgan Poll was the first poll to call a ‘Hung Parliament,’ first announced by Michele Levine on Insiders (ABC 2 TV) on Sunday August 15, 2010. (Morgan - ‘Hung Parliament,’ Newspoll — ‘Hung Parliament,’ Galaxy and Nielsen - both ALP win) — Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on Primary vote for the 2007 Federal Election!

Note the Greens vote was reduced after the Morgan Poll re-interviewed Greens and ‘Undecided’ electors — the result was what we have previously found. 15% of Greens voters change when at the polling booths!

 

For further information:

Gary Morgan:           Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:           Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093