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‘Break bail, go to jail’ – 82% of Victorians agree with Matthew Guy

It’s official an overwhelming majority of Victorian electors (82%) say people charged with a criminal offence who are given bail who then break a bail condition should be immediately sent to jail according to a special SMS Morgan Poll conducted today (Thursday) on the eve of this week’s Victorian State Election.

It's official an overwhelming majority of Victorian electors (82%) say people charged with a criminal offence who are given bail who then break a bail condition should be immediately sent to jail according to a special SMS Morgan Poll conducted today (Thursday) on the eve of this week’s Victorian State Election.


Question – Break bail then jail?

Victorian electors were asked: “Many people charged with a criminal offence are given bail. If a person given bail then breaks a bail condition should that person be immediately sent to jail or not?”

This special SMS Morgan Poll was conducted today (Thursday November 22, 2018) with a state-wide cross-section of 961 Victorian electors aged 18+.


Analysis by Voting Preference

Analysing by voting preference shows vast majorities of supporters of all parties say the that people charged with a criminal offence who then break a bail condition should be immediately sent to jail led by L-NP voters (95%), supporters of Independents/Others (76%), ALP voters (75%) and Greens voters (65%):

  • L-NP voters: Yes (95%) cf. no (5%);
  • ALP voters: Yes (75%) cf. no (25%);
  • Greens voters: Yes (65%) cf. no (35%);
  • Independent/ Others voters: Yes (76%) cf. no (24%).

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by gender shows 88% of women in favour of jailing people breaking their bail conditions immediately compared to 76% of men:

  • Men: Yes (76%) cf. no (24%);
  • Women: Yes (88) cf. no (12%).

Analysis by Age

Analysing by age shows Victorians of all ages support sending people breaking their bail conditions immediately to jail with older Victorians 35 and over most in favour (84%), but huge majorities of those aged 18-24 (77%) and 25-34 (78%):

  • 18-24yr olds: Yes (77%) cf. no (23%);
  • 25-34yr olds: Yes (78%) cf. no (22%);
  • 35-49yr olds: Yes (84%) cf. no (16%);
  • 50-64yr olds: Yes (84%) cf. no (16%);
  • 65+yr olds: Yes (84%) cf. no (16%).

Analysis by Region

Analysing by region shows Country Victorians (88%) are more heavily in favour of jailing people breaking their bail conditions immediately than Melburnians (80%):

  • Melbourne: Yes (80%) cf. no (20%);
  • Country Victoria: Yes (88%) cf. no (12%);


Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan, says:

“A special SMS Morgan Poll today shows a huge majority of Victorians (82%) agree with Liberal Leader Matthew Guy that people given bail who then break a bail condition should be immediately send to jail compared to only 18% that say they shouldn’t.

“In last night’s televised Leaders' debate with Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews, Guy said that “Bail is a privilege, not a right, when you break it, when you break it – you should go back to jail. It’s as simple as that”.

“The good news for the Liberal Party is that it is not just Liberal voters (95%) that agree with Guy, support is widespread across the community. A majority of supporters of the ALP (75%), Greens supporters (65%) and supporters of Independents/Others (76%) agree with Guy as well as huge majorities of Victorians of all age groups.

“Interestingly, more women (88%) want to take a firmer line with bail breakers than men (80%). Women have traditionally been stronger supporters of the ALP than men and this breakdown illustrates an opportunity for the Liberals in the run-up to Saturday’s election.

“The problem that faces the Liberal Party however is that time is running out to get the ‘message across’ to electors given that up to a quarter of Victorians, or over 1 million Victorian electors, have already voted without hearing enough about the Liberal Party’s policies on law & order."

Finding No. 7813 – This special snap SMS Morgan Poll was conducted with a representative cross-section of 961 Victorian electors today, Thursday November 22, 2018.


Question – Break bail then jail?

Victorian electors were asked: “Many people charged with a criminal offence are given bail. If a person given bail then breaks a bail condition should that person be immediately sent to jail or not?”

This special SMS Morgan Poll was conducted today (Thursday November 22, 2018) with a State-wide cross-section of 961 Victorian electors aged 18+.


Analysis by Age & Gender

Total

Gender

Age

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Yes

82

76

88

77

78

84

84

84

No

18

24

12

23

22

16

16

16

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Analysis by Voting Preference & Region

Total

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Other

Can’t say

Melbourne

Country

Victoria

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Yes

82

95

75

65

76

51

80

88

No

18

5

25

35

24

49

20

12

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


For comments or more information about Roy Morgan data, please contact:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093