ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence dipped 2 points to 118 in July, around its historical average. But winter weather typically takes a toll: seasonally adjusted confidence actually rose 1 point to 121.
Consumer confidence was unchanged in September, around its historical average.
- Households remain a little cautious about the outlook but the gap versus current conditions has narrowed.
- A smaller proportion of households believe it to be a good time to buy a major household item.
Consumer confidence is steady, according to the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index, which was unchanged in September at 118, close to the historical average. The Current Conditions Index fell 4 points to 120, while the Future Conditions Index lifted 2 points to 116.
- Consumers’ perceptions of their current financial situations were unchanged, with a net 12% feeling financially better off than a year ago.
- A net 27% of consumers expect to be better off financially this time next year, up 1 point.
- A net 29% say it’s a good time to buy a major household item, down 6 points and the lowest read in three years.
- Perceptions regarding the next year’s economic outlook improved 2 points to +4%, still low. The five-year outlook improved 5 points, to +18%.
- Confidence in Wellington dropped 7 points while Canterbury improved 7 points, more or less closing the gap.
- Expectations for national house price inflation were unchanged at 3.4% y/y. The regions outside Auckland and Canterbury are the strongest.
- Inflation expectations dropped back from 4.0% to 3.4%, the lowest read in six months. This is a little surprising in light of petrol price increases and the NZD fall, and implies that expected higher prices are unlikely to be the reason for the decline in confidence about buying major household items.
Consumer confidence remains pretty steady – and pretty average. Perceptions of current conditions remain strong, but there is some caution about the future, particularly around the broader economy rather than respondents’ own financial situations.
One of the most useful questions in the survey is whether respondents think it’s a good time to buy a major household item. This question bucked the trend this month, dipping 6 points to be the lowest in three years – admitted
Click here to download the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Release PDF - September 2018.
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