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Julie Bishop easily preferred to Bill Shorten as PM, virtual dead-heat between Morrison & Shorten while Shorten leads Dutton clearly

This Snap SMS Morgan Poll was conducted on August 23, 2018, with an Australia-wide cross section of 1,126 electors for Scott Morrison v Bill Shorten and a further 985 electors for Julie Bishop v Bill Shorten electors.

A special Snap SMS Morgan Poll conducted with a cross-section of more than 2,000 Australian electors today (Thursday August 23) shows Deputy Liberal Leader Julie Bishop has easily the strongest performance against Opposition Leader Bill Shorten in a head-to-head matchup while fellow leadership aspirant Scott Morrison is in a virtual ‘dead-heat’ with Shorten.

Yesterday’s Snap SMS Morgan Poll showed Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull with the edge over Shorten as ‘Better PM’ while Shorten holds a comprehensive lead over challenger Peter Dutton – more details here.


Liberal Leadership contenders vs. Opposition Leader Bill Shorten

Julie Bishop (64%) cf. Bill Shorten (36%).

Malcolm Turnbull (54%) cf. Bill Shorten (46%).

Bill Shorten (50.5%) cf. Scott Morrison (49.5%).

Bill Shorten (62%) cf. Peter Dutton (38%).

All ‘can’t say’ and ‘don’t know’ responses have been removed from these results to make them directly comparable.

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine interview with Stan Grant of ABC TV's Matter of Fact

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine discusses the latest Morgan Poll results on Liberal Leadership contenders with Stan Grant on ABC TV's Matter of Fact. Click to view.


Better Prime Minister: Scott Morrison v Bill Shorten

Analysis by Gender – Morrison leads amongst men while Shorten leads amongst women

Men: Morrison 53% cf. Shorten 47%. Lead to Mr. Morrison 6%;

Women: Shorten 54% cf. Morrison 46%. Lead to Mr. Shorten 8%.


Analysis by Age – Shorten leads Australians under 50, Morrison leads 50+ year olds

18-24yr olds: Shorten 70% cf. Morrison 30%. Lead to Mr. Shorten 40%;

25-34yr olds: Shorten 63.5% cf. Morrison 36.5%. Lead to Mr. Shorten 27%;

35-49yr olds: Shorten 53% cf. Morrison 47%. Lead to Mr. Shorten 6%;

50-64yr olds: Morrison 57.5% cf. Shorten 42.5%. Lead to Mr. Morrison 15%;

65+yrs old: Morrison 61% cf. Shorten 39%. Lead to Mr. Morrison 22%.


Analysis by Party – Morrison leads among L-NP & Ind./Others and Shorten ahead with ALP & Greens

L-NP supporters: Morrison 91% cf. Shorten 9%. Lead to Mr. Morrison 82%;

ALP supporters: Shorten 78.5% cf. Morrison 21.5%. Lead to Mr. Shorten 57%;

Greens supporters: Shorten 88.5% cf. Morrison 11.5%. Lead to Mr. Shorten 77%;

Ind./Others supporters: Morrison 54% cf. Shorten 46%. Lead to Mr. Morrison 8%.


Analysis by State – Shorten leads in Vic, WA, SA & Tas while Morrison ahead in NSW & QLD

NSW: Morrison 51% cf. Shorten 49%. Lead to Mr. Morrison 2%;

Victoria: Shorten 54% cf. Morrison 46%. Lead to Mr. Shorten 8%;

Queensland: Morrison 53.5% cf. Shorten 46.5%. Lead to Mr. Morrison 7%;

WA: Shorten 50.5% cf. Morrison 49.5%. Lead to Mr. Shorten 1%;

SA: Shorten 52.5% cf. Morrison 47.5%. Lead to Mr. Shorten 5%;

Tasmania: Shorten 55.5% cf. Morrison 44.5%. Lead to Mr. Shorten 11%.


Better Prime Minister: Julie Bishop v Bill Shorten

Analysis by Gender – Bishop leads shorten easily amongst both women and men

Men: Bishop 62.5% cf. Shorten 37.5%. Lead to Ms. Bishop 25%;

Women: Bishop 65.5% cf. Shorten 34.5%. Lead to Ms. Bishop 31%.


Analysis by Age – Bishop leads Shorten easily across all age groups

18-24yr olds: Bishop 57.5% cf. Shorten 42.5%. Lead to Ms. Bishop 15%;

25-34yr olds: Bishop 65% cf. Shorten 35%. Lead to Ms. Bishop 30%;

35-49yr olds: Bishop 66.5% cf. Shorten 33.5%. Lead to Ms. Bishop 33%;

50-64yr olds: Bishop 66.5% cf. Shorten 33.5%. Lead to Ms. Bishop 33%;

65+yrs old: Bishop 61% cf. Shorten 39%. Lead to Ms. Bishop 22%.


Analysis by Party – Bishop leads easily amongst L-NP & Ind./Others supporters, Shorten ahead with ALP & Greens supporters

L-NP supporters: Bishop 87% cf. Shorten 13%. Lead to Ms. Bishop 74%;

ALP supporters: Shorten 59.5% cf. Bishop 40.5%. Lead to Mr. Shorten 19%;

Greens supporters: Shorten 56.5% cf. Bishop 43.5%. Lead to Mr. Shorten 13%;

Ind./Others supporters: Bishop 70.5% cf. Shorten 29.5%. Lead to Ms. Bishop 41%.


Analysis by State – Bishop leads in all mainland states, huge lead in home state of WA

NSW: Bishop 65.5% cf. Shorten 34.5%. Lead to Ms. Bishop 31%;

Victoria: Bishop 59% cf. Shorten 41%. Lead to Ms. Bishop 18%;

Queensland: Bishop 63.5% cf. Shorten 36.5%. Lead to Ms. Bishop 27%;

WA: Bishop 84% cf. Shorten 16%. Lead to Ms. Bishop 68%;

SA: Bishop 57% cf. Shorten 43%. Lead to Ms. Bishop 14%;

Tasmania: Shorten 51% cf. Bishop 49%. Lead to Mr. Shorten 2%.

This Snap SMS Morgan Poll was conducted on August 23, 2018, with an Australia-wide cross section of 1,126 electors for Scott Morrison v Bill Shorten and a further 985 electors for Julie Bishop v Bill Shorten electors. Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).


Better Prime Minister: Morrison v Shorten

Electors were asked: “Thinking of Mr. Scott Morrison and Mr. Bill Shorten. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister – Mr. Morrison or Mr. Shorten?”

Electors 18+

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

Aug 23,
2018

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Ind./
Others

Can’t
say#

%

%

%

%

%

%

Morrison

49.5

91

21.5

11.5

54

60.5

Shorten

50.5

9

78.5

88.5

46

30.5

Morrison lead

(1)

82

(57)

(77)

8

30

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

#Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

Electors 18+

Analysis by Sex & Age

Aug 23,
2018

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Morrison

49.5

53

46

30

36.5

47

57.5

61

Shorten

50.5

47

54

70

63.5

53

42.5

39

Morrison lead

(1)

6

(8)

(40)

(27)

(6)

15

22

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

Electors 18+

Analysis by Regions & States

Aug 23,
2018

Country

Capital
Cities

NSW

VIC

QLD

WA

SA

TAS#

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Morrison

49.5

52.5

47.5

51

46

53.5

49.5

47.5

44.5

Shorten

50.5

47.5

52.5

49

54

46.5

50.5

52.5

55.5

Morrison lead

(1)

5

(5)

2

(8)

7

(1)

(5)

(11)

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

#Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.


Better Prime Minister: Bishop v Shorten

Electors were asked: “Thinking of Ms. Julie Bishop and Mr. Bill Shorten. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister – Ms. Bishop or Mr. Shorten?”

Electors 18+

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

Aug 23,
2018

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Ind./
Others

Can’t
say#

%

%

%

%

%

%

Bishop

64

87

40.5

43.5

70.5

50.5

Shorten

36

13

59.5

56.5

29.5

49.5

Bishop lead

28

74

(19)

(13)

41

1

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

#Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

Electors 18+

Analysis by Sex & Age

Aug 23,
2018

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Bishop

64

62.5

65.5

57.5

65

66.5

66.5

61

Shorten

36

37.5

34.5

42.5

35

33.5

33.5

39

Bishop lead

28

25

31

15

30

33

33

22

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

Electors 18+

Analysis by Regions & States

Aug 23,
2018

Country

Capital
Cities

NSW

VIC

QLD

WA

SA

TAS#

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Bishop

64

60.5

66.5

65.5

59

63.5

84

57

49

Shorten

36

39.5

33.5

34.5

41

36.5

16

43

51

Bishop lead

28

21

33

31

18

27

68

14

(2)

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

#Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.


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