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Snap Morgan Poll shows electors prefer Turnbull to Shorten but Shorten preferred to Dutton

This Snap SMS Morgan Poll was conducted on August 22, 2018, with an Australia-wide cross section of 1,288 electors.
A special Snap SMS Morgan Poll conducted with a cross-section of more than 1,250 Australian electors today (Wednesday August 22) shows PM Malcolm Turnbull (52%) is seen as the Better PM compared to Opposition Leader Bill Shorten (44.5%) while a further 3.5% can’t say. 

Removing the ‘can’t say’ responses shows Turnbull (54%) cf. Shorten (46%).

However, Bill Shorten (59%) is clearly seen as the Better PM compared to Liberal Party leadership challenger Peter Dutton (36.5%) while a further 4.5% can’t say. Removing the ‘can’t say’ responses shows Shorten (62%) cf. Dutton (38%).


Better Prime Minister: Malcolm Turnbull v Bill Shorten

Analysis by Gender – Turnbull holds larger lead amongst men than women

Men: Turnbull 55.5% cf. Shorten 44.5%. Lead to Mr. Turnbull 11%;

Women: Turnbull 52.5% cf. Shorten 47.5%. Lead to Mr. Turnbull 5%.


Analysis by Age – Turnbull leads 18-24yr olds and Australians 50+, Shorten ahead for 25-34yr olds

18-24yr olds: Turnbull 58.5% cf. Shorten 41.5%. Lead to Mr. Turnbull 17%;

25-34yr olds: Shorten 54.5% cf. Turnbull 45.5%. Lead to Mr. Shorten 9%;

35-49yr olds: Turnbull 50% cf. Shorten 50%. Dead level;

50-64yr olds: Turnbull 55% cf. Shorten 45%. Lead to Mr. Turnbull 10%;

65+yrs old: Turnbull 62% cf. Shorten 38%. Lead to Mr. Turnbull 24%.


Analysis by Party – Turnbull leads among L-NP electors and Shorten well ahead with ALP & Greens

L-NP supporters: Turnbull 90.5% cf. Shorten 9.5%. Lead to Mr. Turnbull 81%;

ALP supporters: Shorten 76% cf. Turnbull 24%. Lead to Mr. Shorten 52%;

Greens supporters: Shorten 72% cf. Turnbull 28%. Lead to Mr. Shorten 44%;

Ind./Others supporters: Shorten 55% cf. Turnbull 45%. Lead to Mr. Shorten 10%.


Analysis by State – Turnbull leads across all States – biggest leads in Tasmania & SA

NSW: Turnbull 53.5% cf. Shorten 46.5%. Lead to Mr. Turnbull 7%;

Victoria: Turnbull 52% cf. Shorten 48%. Lead to Mr. Turnbull 4%;

Queensland: Turnbull 55% cf. Shorten 45%. Lead to Mr. Turnbull 10%;

WA: Turnbull 55% cf. Shorten 45%. Lead to Mr. Turnbull 10%;

SA: Turnbull 58.5% cf. Shorten 41.5%. Lead to Mr. Turnbull 17%;

Tasmania: Turnbull 62.5% cf. Shorten 37.5%. Lead to Mr. Turnbull 25%.


Better Prime Minister: Peter Dutton v Bill Shorten

Analysis by Gender – Shorten holds much larger lead amongst women than men

Men: Shorten 58% cf. Dutton 42%. Lead to Mr. Shorten 16%;

Women: Shorten 66% cf. Dutton 34%. Lead to Mr. Shorten 32%.


Analysis by Age – Shorten leads Australians under 65, Dutton leads 65+ year olds

18-24yr olds: Shorten 74% cf. Dutton 26%. Lead to Mr. Shorten 48%;

25-34yr olds: Shorten 74% cf. Dutton 26%. Lead to Mr. Shorten 48%;

35-49yr olds: Shorten 66% cf. Dutton 34%. Lead to Mr. Shorten 32%;

50-64yr olds: Shorten 57% cf. Dutton 43%. Lead to Mr. Shorten 14%;

65+yrs old: Dutton 52% cf. Shorten 48%. Lead to Mr. Dutton 4%.


Analysis by Party – Dutton leads among L-NP electors and Shorten ahead with ALP, Greens & Others

L-NP supporters: Dutton 74% cf. Shorten 26%. Lead to Mr. Dutton 48%;

ALP supporters: Shorten 90.5% cf. Dutton 9.5%. Lead to Mr. Shorten 81%;

Greens supporters: Shorten 94% cf. Dutton 6%. Lead to Mr. Shorten 88%;

Ind./Others supporters: Shorten 68% cf. Dutton 32%. Lead to Mr. Shorten 36%.


Analysis by State – Shorten leads across all States – biggest leads in Victoria & WA

NSW: Shorten 60% cf. Dutton 40%. Lead to Mr. Shorten 20%;

Victoria: Shorten 67.5% cf. Dutton 32.5%. Lead to Mr. Shorten 35%;

Queensland: Shorten 57% cf. Dutton 43%. Lead to Mr. Shorten 14%;

WA: Shorten 67.5% cf. Dutton 32.5%. Lead to Mr. Shorten 35%;

SA: Shorten 57% cf. Dutton 43%. Lead to Mr. Shorten 14%;

Tasmania: Shorten 53% cf. Dutton 47%. Lead to Mr. Shorten 6%.


Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan says:

“Today’s (Wednesday August 22) Snap SMS Morgan Poll shows Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull (52%) is preferred as ‘Better Prime Minister’ to Opposition Leader Bill Shorten (44.5%) despite the leadership speculation surrounding Turnbull this week following a challenge to his leadership by Peter Dutton.

“There is continuing speculation that Dutton will launch another leadership challenge to Turnbull as soon as today. If the Liberal Party chose to elect Peter Dutton as the new Liberal Party Leader they would be setting Bill Shorten and the ALP on course for victory at the next Federal Election.

“On the central question of who would make the Better Prime Minister Opposition Leader Bill Shorten (59%) is clearly preferred to Peter Dutton (36.5%) as ‘Better Prime Minister’ following Dutton’s challenge to Turnbull on Tuesday morning.

 “Current Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is preferred to Shorten across almost all key demographics including both genders, in all six States and amongst those aged 18-24 and over 50. Shorten leads amongst 25-34yr olds and it’s a dead heat between the two for those aged 35-49.

“In contrast, the results are almost reversed for Dutton. Shorten is preferred to Dutton by both genders, in all six States and by Australians under the age of 65. Only Australians aged 65+ believe Dutton would make a Better Prime Minister than Shorten and by a slim margin (50% cf. 46%). Dutton is not significantly stronger in his home State of Queensland than any other state.

“The choice for Liberal MPs and Senators should be clear if they want a chance of winning the next Federal Election and that means sticking with current Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull despite the turmoil.

“This Morgan Poll did not ask about the preference for Foreign Minister Julie Bishop as Prime Minister however in the last Morgan Poll conducted regarding the preferred leader of the Liberal Party Bishop on 30% was preferred to Turnbull (27%) and all other candidates including Dutton (5%).

“Roy Morgan also asked electors what worries they have about a re-elected L-NP Government – whether led by Turnbull or Dutton, and also what worries electors have about an ALP Government elected at the next Federal Election. A detailed breakdown of responses will be available to view on Friday.”


This Snap SMS Morgan Poll was conducted on August 22, 2018, with an Australia-wide cross section of 1,288 electors. Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).


Better Prime Minister: Turnbull v Shorten

Electors were asked: “Thinking of Mr. Malcolm Turnbull and Mr. Bill Shorten. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister – Mr. Turnbull or Mr. Shorten?”

PM Tony Abbott
v  Bill Shorten

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull
v Bill Shorten

Jan
2015

Apr
2015

July
2015

Sep 15,
2015
*

Oct
2015

May
2016

July 5,
2016**

Oct
2016

Mar 14-16,
2017

Aug 22,
2018***

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Prime Minister

Abbott/ Turnbull

41

44

42

70

76

57

51

47

49

52

Shorten

43

39

41

24

14

24

47

32

32

44.5

Abbott/ Turnbull lead

(2)

5

1

46

62

33

4

15

17

7.5

Neither / Can’t say

16

17

17

6

10

19

2

21

19

3.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

*The first special Snap SMS Morgan Poll was conducted on Tuesday September 15, 2015 – the day Malcolm Turnbull was sworn in as Australia’s 29th Prime Minister replacing former Prime Minister Tony Abbott. **The second special Snap SMS Morgan Poll was conducted immediately after the close 2016 Federal Election. ***The third special Snap SMS Morgan Poll was conducted following Peter Dutton’s leadership challenge and after a series of cabinet ministers offered PM Malcolm Turnbull their resignation.

Electors 18+

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

Aug 22,
2018

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Ind./
Others

Can’t
say#

%

%

%

%

%

%

Turnbull

52

86

23.5

27.5

42.5

46

Shorten

44.5

9

74.5

71

52

54

Turnbull lead

7.5

77

(51)

(43.5)

(9.5)

(8)

Neither/ Can’t say

3.5

5

2

1.5

5.5

-

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

#Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.


Electors 18+

Analysis by Sex & Age

Aug 22,
2018

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Turnbull

52

53

51

57.5

44.5

48.5

52

59

Shorten

44.5

43

46

41

53.5

48.5

42.5

36

Turnbull lead

7.5

10

5

16.5

(9)

-

9.5

23

Neither/ Can’t say

3.5

4

3

1.5

2

3

5.5

5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Electors 18+

Analysis by Regions & States

Aug 22,
2018

Country

Capital
Cities

NSW

VIC

QLD

WA

SA

TAS#

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Turnbull

52

50

53

50.5

51

52

54.5

57

58.5

Shorten

44.5

45

44

44.5

47.5

42

44

40.5

35.5

Turnbull lead

7.5

5

9

6

3.5

10

9.5

16.5

23

Neither/ Can’t say

3.5

5

3

5

1.5

6

1.5

2.5

6

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

#Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.


Better Prime Minister: Dutton v Shorten

Electors were asked: “Thinking of Mr. Peter Dutton and Mr. Bill Shorten. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister – Mr. Dutton or Mr. Shorten?”

Electors 18+

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

Aug 22,
2018

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Ind./
Others

Can’t
say#

%

%

%

%

%

%

Dutton

36.5

72

9

6

31

30.5

Shorten

59

25

89

93.5

67

40

Shorten lead

22.5

(47)

80

87.5

36

9.5

Neither/ Can’t say

4.5

3

2

0.5

2

29.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

#Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.


Electors 18+

Analysis by Sex & Age

Aug 22,
2018

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Dutton

36.5

41

32

24

26

32

40.5

50

Shorten

59

56.5

61.5

68.5

73.5

62

54

46

Shorten lead

22.5

15.5

29.5

44.5

47.5

30

13.5

4

Neither/ Can’t say

4.5

2.5

6.5

7.5

0.5

6

5.5

4

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Electors 18+

Analysis by Regions & States

Aug 22,
2018

Country

Capital
Cities

NSW

VIC

QLD

WA

SA

TAS#

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Dutton

36.5

40.5

34.5

38.5

31.5

40

30.5

40.5

47

Shorten

59

53.5

62

57.5

64.5

53

64

54

53

Shorten lead

22.5

13

27.5

19

33

13

33.5

13.5

6

Neither/ Can’t say

4.5

6

3.5

4

4

7

5.5

5.5

-

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

#Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

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