Back To Listing

Indonesian Consumer Confidence down from three-year high to 157.0

The monthly Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 2,143 face-to-face interviews conducted throughout Indonesia, not just a handful of cities. The survey includes the Top 23 cities, smaller cities and towns as well as many more villages in the rural hinterland, reflecting all of Indonesia. Women & men aged 14 and over were randomly selected during the month of May 2018.
Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence is down 1.1pts to 157.0 in May 2018. Consumer Confidence is now 6.3pts higher than a year ago in May 2017 (150.7) and a large 21.9pts above the long-run average (2005-2018) of 135.1.

The small decrease in Consumer Confidence was driven by small falls in consumer sentiment towards the state of the Indonesian economy over the next 12 months and next five years.

Since May last year the year on year increase in Indonesian Consumer Confidence has been driven by full-time employees, white collar workers and skilled/unskilled workers. The Consumer Confidence of Professionals/ Managers is up only slightly and those working part-time now have lower Consumer Confidence than a year ago.

In May 41% (up 1ppt in a month) of Indonesians consider their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago (the highest figure for this indicator for over two years since April 2016). Only 8% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

The vast majority of 70% (down 1ppt) of Indonesians expect their family will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year. Only 3% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.

Now 89% (down 1ppt) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ financially during the next 12 months and only 11% (up 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’ financially.

And looking at the longer-term, now 94% (down 1ppt) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ economically over the next five years and 6% (up 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’.

Over half of Indonesians, 58% (down 1ppt), say ‘now is a good time to buy’ major household items and 39% (up 2ppts) say ‘now is a bad time to buy’ major household items.

Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence - May 2018

Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ May 2018 (n=2,143).


Consumer confidence pushed higher by full-time employees and white collar workers

Analysing Indonesian Consumer Confidence by employment status and occupation shows full-time employees along with white collar workers and professionals/managers now have the highest consumer confidence of any employment and occupation categories.

Unsurprisingly full-time workers with a consumer confidence of 160.7, up by 7.5pts from a year ago, have a higher level of confidence than other employment categories. Full-time workers comprise just under 60% of the Indonesian population aged 14+.

Although the overall confidence of Indonesians is up substantially the confidence of part-time employees is marginally down on a year ago at 152.4, down 1.3pts. The level of part-time employment in Indonesia has increased steadily over the last year from around 6% to just over 8% in May.

Around a third of Indonesians aged 14+ are not in paid employment and confidence for this group has increased by 6.1pts to 151.5.

For different types of occupation it is white collar workers who have had the biggest boost to confidence over the last year up by 8.9pts to 170.4 while professionals/managers are up a more modest 2.3pts to 159.6. Skilled/unskilled workers have seen an impressive increase in confidence and are now just above the national average at 157.3, up by 8.4pts.


Indonesian Consumer Confidence by employment status & occupation: May 2017 vs May 2018

Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence by Work Status & Occupation - May 2018

Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ May 2017 (n=2,140) & May 2018 (n=2,143).


Ira Soekirman, Director, Roy Morgan Indonesia, says:

"Indonesian Consumer Confidence has dropped 1.1pts to 157.0 in May although Consumer Confidence is still 6.3pts higher (+4.2%) than a year ago in May 2017 (150.7) and significantly higher than in southern neighbours Australia (121.4) or New Zealand (120.0).

“Driving Consumer Confidence lower in May were small falls in confidence regarding the future state of the Indonesian economy over the next few years with 89% (down 1ppt) of Indonesians now expecting ‘good times’ for the Indonesian economy over the next 12 months and 94% (down 1ppt) now expecting ‘good times’ for the Indonesian economy over the next five years.

“Analysing longer-term trends in consumer confidence by employment status shows it is full-time workers who have had the biggest increase in confidence over the last 12 months, up by 7.5pts to 160.7 while part-time workers are down slightly to 152.4, down 1.3pts.

“White collar workers with a consumer confidence of 170.4 in May and up by 8.9pts over the last 12 months have had the best year of any class of occupation while professionals/managers (159.6) and skilled/unskilled workers (157.3) are just above the national average.

“Indonesians not in paid employment who comprise about a third of the Indonesian population aged 14+ have the lowest consumer confidence of any employment or occupation group at 151.5 although this has increased by 6.1pts (+4.2%) from a year ago in line with the 4.2% increase in the overall figure.”

The monthly Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 2,143 face-to-face interviews conducted throughout Indonesia, not just a handful of cities. The survey includes the Top 23 cities, smaller cities and towns as well as many more villages in the rural hinterland, reflecting all of Indonesia. Women & men aged 14 and over were randomly selected during the month of May 2018.

Consumer Confidence remains very high in Indonesia when compared to Indonesia’s Asia-Pacific neighbours – Australia June 23/24, 2018 – 121.4) and New Zealand (June 2018 – 120.0) and long-term Consumer Confidence trends for the three countries are covered extensively here.

For further information:

Ira Soekirman: Office +62 21 572 2021 Mobile +62 811165400


Latest Roy Morgan Indonesian & ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Data Tables

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate. 

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0