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New car purchasing intentions in Australia are moderating

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source Survey (Australia), February 2002 - April 2018, 3 month moving average, average quarterly sample = 13,267 Base: Australians 14+. Figures exclude fleet, government and rental buyers.
New research from Roy Morgan shows that in the three months to April 2018, 2.268 million Australians said that they intend to purchase a new car in the next four years. This is a decline of 66,000 from March but still remains above the long term average of 2.155 million.

These are the latest results from Roy Morgan’s ‘Automotive Currency Report’ which is based on in-depth personal interviews conducted face-to-face with over 50,000 Australians per annum in their own home, with over 1,300 Australians intending to buy a car in the next four years.

In addition to the level of new car intenders showing some decline over the next four years, the level of those intending to purchase in the next 12 months has also dropped from 612,000 in March to 578,000.

New Car Purchase Intentions

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source Survey (Australia), February 2002 - April 2018, 3 month moving average, average quarterly sample = 13,267 Base: Australians 14+. Figures exclude fleet, government and rental buyers.

Norman Morris, Industry Communications Director, Roy Morgan says:

“Official VFACTS sales of new vehicles for the calendar year to May show that the market is up by around two percent, but this research has shown some potential weakness in buyer intentions over the next four years. 

“On the positive side, the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence for June 2018 is at a high of 120.8, well up on 112.5 in June 2017 and in fact the most positive June result since 2007. We have seen that sustained strong consumer confidence is likely to have a positive impact on new car intention levels which could improve in the second half of 2018 if confidence remains high.

“The growth in the preference for SUVs looks likely to continue but those intending to purchase a new vehicle over the next four years are still marginally more likely to purchase a passenger car (932,000) compared to an SUV (821,000). 

“With over 300,000 intenders currently being undecided on the type of vehicle they are likely to purchase and the rapid change in technology and fuel preference or availability, the next four years is likely to see considerable change in car buyer preferences.“To understand more about car intenders, including preferred brands, attitudes to cars, opinions of vehicle manufacturers, and more, ask Roy Morgan.”


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Roy Morgan - Enquiries
Office: (+61) (03) 9224 5309
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About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices throughout Australia, as well as in Indonesia, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2