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New Zealand First in the box seat to decide next NZ Government as National Party neck-and-neck with Labour/ Greens

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone – with a NZ wide cross-section of 862 electors between April 3-16, 2017. Of all electors surveyed 7% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.
In April support for New Zealand First was up 3% to 10.5% putting Winston Peters’ party now clearly in the box seat to decide which parties will form New Zealand’s next Government after September’s election the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll finds.

  • The overall support for the governing National-led coalition fell 1% to 45.5% with National support dropping 0.5% to 43%, support for the Maori Party dropping 1% to 1% and support for United Future dropping 0.5% to 0%, while in contrast support for Act NZ was up 1% to 1.5%.

  • Support for a potential Labour/ Greens alliance dropped 1.5% to 43% with support for Labour unchanged at 29.5%, while support for the Greens fell 1.5% to 13%. As noted above, support for potential ‘kingmakers’ New Zealand First increased 3% to 10.5%.

  • Of the parties currently outside Parliament support for the Internet Party fell 0.5% to 0%, while support for the Conservative Party was unchanged at 0.5%, and support for Independents/ Others was unchanged at 1%.

New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating down in April

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen 7pts to 129pts in April with 58% of NZ electors (down 3.5%) saying NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ cf. 29% of NZ electors (up 3.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman of Roy Morgan Research, says the increasing support for NZ First follows the same trend shown by the Morgan Poll before the 2011 & 2014 NZ Elections:

“Support for NZ First has increased to 10.5% - the highest support for Winston Peters’ party this election year. In both the 2011 & 2014 NZ Elections the Morgan Poll showed support for NZ First rising in the months prior to the election and NZ First exceeded expectations at both elections.

“In 2011 NZ First averaged 3.5% support in Morgan Polls conducted between January and October before polling 6.5% in the final Morgan Poll in mid-November and receiving 6.59% of the vote at the November Election which led to NZ First winning 8 seats – higher than any pollster predicted.

“In 2014 NZ First averaged 5% support in Morgan Polls conducted between January and July before polling 8% in the final Morgan Poll in early September and receiving 8.66% of the vote at the September Election which led to NZ First winning 11 seats – again higher than any pollster predicted.

“If NZ First can achieve electoral support of 10.5% at this year’s New Zealand Election that will translate into the party winning up to 14 seats in the new Parliament.

 “NZ First Leader Winston Peters is often characterised as New Zealand’s version of US President Donald Trump and if support for NZ First holds up over the next five months Peters is likely to return to the Government benches for the first time since serving as Minister of Foreign Affairs a decade ago from 2005-2008.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone – with a NZ wide cross-section of 862 electors between April 3-16, 2017. Of all electors surveyed 7% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.



For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093



Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0