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Turnbull Government’s decision to scrap 457 visas indicates Government is finally considering the plight of Australia’s 1 million+ under-employed

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 525,860 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – March 2017 and includes 4,040 face-to-face interviews in March 2017.
Australia’s real unemployment for March is virtually unchanged at 9.3% (1.236 million). For the seventh straight month more than 1 million Australians were under-employed in March – 1.104 million (8.4% of the workforce). This is a total of 2.340 million (17.7%) of Australians looking for work or looking for more work.

  • Unemployment of 9.3% (down 1.7%) is less than a year ago, however under-employment is up 0.6% to 8.4%;

  • In March the total Australian workforce was 13,211,000 (up 267,000) and total employment grew strongly to 11,975,000 (up 453,000);

  • Full-time employment was up 264,000 to 7,868,000, and part-time employment up 189,000 to 4,107,000;

  • The Roy Morgan real unemployment figures are substantially higher than the current ABS estimate for February 2017 (5.9%).

Roy Morgan Unemployment & Under-employment - March 2017 - 17.7%
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source October 2005 – March 2017. Average monthly interviews 4,000.


Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says Governments in Australia are finally waking up to the plight of over 1 million under-employed Australians:

“Australian Governments have ignored high under-employment for far too long – the Turnbull Government’s decision to scrap 457 visas indicates the Turnbull Government is finally beginning to recognise this huge economic and social problem.

“Australian under-employment has exceeded 1 million for 33/42 months since the L-NP was elected nearly four years ago – the ‘hidden’ problem frequently forgotten by the political class, and the media, which like to concentrate on the historically low ABS unemployment figure (5.9%).

“Reviewing the 457 visa system, in addition to the Fair Work Commission’s recent decision to reduce weekend and public holiday penalty rates which allows businesses to stay open when they were previously closed, are both steps in the right direction to addressing the over 2 million Australians unemployed or under-employed.

“The 453,000 new jobs created over the past year show the Australian economy is growing but excessive red tape, and high corporate tax rates, are holding back the economy from providing jobs, and additional hours, to those that need them.”

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 525,860 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – March 2017 and includes 4,040 face-to-face interviews in March 2017.

*The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work. (Unfortunately the ABS does not release this figure in their monthly unemployment survey results).

Roy Morgan Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimates

Unemployed or

‘Under-employed’*

Unemployed

Unemployed looking for

‘Under-employed’*

Full-time

Part-time

2016

Jan-Mar 2016

2,496

19.1

1,362

10.4

639

723

1,134

8.7

Apr-Jun 2016

2,322

18.1

1,317

10.2

637

680

1,005

7.8

Jul-Sep 2016

2,296

17.8

1,266

9.8

574

692

1,030

8.0

Oct-Dec 2016

2,446

18.9

1,191

9.2

635

556

1,255

9.7

2017

Jan-Mar 2017

2,377

17.9

1,261

9.5

591

670

1,116

8.4

Months

February 2016

2,480

18.8

1,319

10.0

589

730

1,161

8.8

March 2016

2,433

18.8

1,422

11.0

631

791

1,011

7.8

April 2016

2,322

18.1

1,334

10.4

611

723

988

7.7

May 2016

2,316

18.1

1,369

10.7

661

708

947

7.4

June 2016

2,326

17.9

1,247

9.6

637

610

1,079

8.3

July 2016

2,536

19.5

1,365

10.5

645

720

1,171

9.0

August 2016

2,249

17.5

1,332

10.4

544

788

917

7.1

September 2016

2,103

16.2

1,101

8.5

532

569

1,002

7.7

October 2016

2,454

19.1

1,188

9.2

626

562

1,266

9.9

November 2016

2,299

17.6

1,199

9.2

629

570

1,100

8.4

December 2016

2,584

20.0

1,186

9.2

650

536

1,398

10.8

January 2017

2,402

17.9

1,295

9.7

634

661

1,107

8.2

February 2017

2,390

17.9

1,253

9.4

576

677

1,137

8.5

March 2017

2,340

17.7

1,236

9.3

563

673

1,104

8.4

*Workforce includes those employed and those looking for work – the unemployed.


For further information

Contact

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Gary Morgan:     

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:       

+61 3 9224 5215  

+61 411 129 093


Unemployment Data Tables

Roy Morgan Research Employment Estimates (2001-2017)

Roy Morgan Research Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates (2007-2017)

Roy Morgan Research vs ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2017)

ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2017)

Roy Morgan Monthly Unemployment - March 2017 - 9.3%

Roy Morgan Quarterly Unemployment - March Quarter 2017 - 9.5%


ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA

NOT THE ‘PERCEPTION’ OF UNEMPLOYMENT – JUNE 8, 2012

http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Files/Papers/2012/20120603.pdf

The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section by face-to-face interviews. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when.

The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews. Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.

The ABS classifies a person as unemployed if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.

For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate. Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published.


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

% Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2