Back To Listing

2016 likely to set a record for car sales – but what’s in store for 2017?

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia), January 2002 – October 2016, average quarterly sample n=13,366 Australians 14+ rolling monthly

After rising throughout the first half of 2016, the number of Australian new car buyers in the market contracted in the latest quarter to October 2016, new automotive currency data from Roy Morgan Research shows.

The number of Australians who intend to buy a new car within the next 12 months has fallen to 563,000 in the latest quarter to October 2016. The recent decline has undone nearly all the steady growth in near-term new car purchase intention throughout the first half of 2016.

Total intention to buy a new car within the next four years has also eased from the July peak, although it remains in positive territory year-on-year. There are now 2,264,000 new car buyers in the market. 

New car buying intentions

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia), January 2002 – October 2016, average quarterly sample n=13,366 Australians 14+ rolling monthly

Jordan Pakes, Industry Director – Automotive, Roy Morgan Research, says:

Heading into the final part of 2016, the industry looks set to hit another all-time record for sales of new cars – currently up by 2.4% year to date, despite October sales declining marginally compared with 12 months ago.

“In line with this period, short-term private buying intentions also declined marginally in October, with 563,000 Australians looking to buy a new car in the next 12 months, down from 590,000 this time last year. At a brand level, Toyota still leads the way, with 117,000 potential buyers considering a new Toyota, although this is down from 138,000 in October 2015. Of the other volume brands, the biggest mover over the past year has been Honda, up from 31,000 last October to 41,000 now. This is good news for Honda: despite marginally softer sales this year to date, a strong 2017 is on the cards.

“The SUV boom looks likely to continue in 2017, with 225,000 people intending to purchase a high-riding alternative. Passenger car purchase intention declined over much of 2016 and now sits below the total SUV category on 218,000. Much of this is the result of decreased intentions to buy Small passenger cars such as the Mazda3 and Corolla – a potential casualty of Australians’ increasing appetite for SUVs, and in particular the ‘Smaller’ variants.”

For comments or more information please contact:
Roy Morgan Research - Enquiries
Office: (+61) (03) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com


About Roy Morgan Research

Roy Morgan Research is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices throughout Australia, as well as in Indonesia, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan Research has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2