This weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,015 face-to-face interviews conducted Australia-wide with men and women aged 14 and over last weekend December 3/4, 2016.
ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose a solid 2.8% to 118.6 this week. The headline index is now at its highest level in ten weeks. The details were also positive.
ANZ Head of Australian Economics Felicity Emmett commented:
- The strength in the headline index was broadly based, with the biggest improvement coming from a 4.4% jump in households’ view of future finances. Households’ views of their finances compared to a year ago also improved, but by a much more modest 0.2%.
- Households’ views of economic conditions over the next 12 months rose a strong 2.9%, while household’s view of the economic outlook in the next 5 years bounced a solid 2.2%.
- After three weeks of straight declines, household views on whether ‘now is a good time to buy a household item’ rebounded by 4.0% last week.
- The 4-week moving average of inflation expectations continued to edge higher and is now up to 4.1% from 4.0% last week.
“Australian households remain optimistic about their finances and more confident about the economy, especially in the near term. Importantly, households’ views of their current finances are particularly upbeat – with the index well above its long-run average. This indicator tends to correlate well with consumer spending, suggesting that the outlook for consumer spending remains positive despite the recent lull.
"For the RBA, the outlook for spending remains key and ongoing strength in consumer confidence is encouraging. It suggests that the apparent loss of momentum in the economy in Q3 is likely to be temporary, with last week’s retail sales data suggesting that growth in household spending accelerated into Q4.
"This week’s GDP report and RBA meeting will likely shape the news flow in the coming days and have the potential to influence consumers’ confidence over the coming week.”
Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan Research, commented:
"ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence has improved strongly this week driven by rising confidence about personal financial situations and that now is a good time to buy major household items. The improvement in Consumer Confidence is matched by the increase in Roy Morgan November Business Confidence – now at 116.7 – it’s highest since the Federal Election.
"Both measures have improved despite the election victory of Donald Trump in the US, which many suggested would cause problems for the global economy. Of course, Trump is not yet in office, so will President Trump stand by his campaign promises or move away from them as President? The major test for Trump is whether he can convince the Federal Reserve not to raise interest rates whilst real unemployment and under-employment in America (well over 20%) is clearly higher than the ‘unbelievable’ figures released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showing US unemployment of only 4.6% in November.
"In addition, Trump’s stance on US free-trade ‘deals’ will be particularly important to the Australian economy which has benefited from free-trade agreements with important trading partners like China, Japan and South Korea. If Trump increases trade barriers with important Australian trading partners this will obviously impact on Australian Business Confidence which so far has been steady since the Trump victory."
Click here to view the PDF of the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Release.
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You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.
The week that was November 28 - December 4, 2016
Turnbull, Shorten to unite against Indigenous domestic violence
Government a step closer to passing ABCC bill
One Nation trying to register for Tasmanian election
China lodges protest after Trump call with Taiwan President
Oil prices continue rise as OPEC, Russia agree to cut production
Bellamy's shares tumble 40 per cent as Chinese rules sour business
Government defends last-minute backpacker tax deal with Greens
Coalition concedes to Xenophon to clear way for ABCC laws
South Sudanese parents in Australia sending kids to Africa to avoid crime
Thousands of Chinese buyers may be forced to sell units as bank noose tightens