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Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence falls in October – now 150.0 (down 1.7pts); still above 2016 monthly average (149.7)

The monthly Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 2,134 face-to-face interviews conducted throughout Indonesia, not just a handful of cities. The survey includes the Top 22 cities, smaller cities and towns as well as many more villages in the rural hinterland, reflecting all of Indonesia. Men and women aged 14 and over were randomly selected during the month of October 2016.
Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence for October fell to 150.0 (down 1.7pts). However, despite the fall, Consumer Confidence is still 6.8pts higher than it was a year ago in October 2015 (143.2) and is now a large 16.9pts above the long-run average (2005-2016) of 133.1.

Driving this month’s decrease in Consumer Confidence was less confidence amongst Indonesians about economic conditions over the next 12 months and the next five years.

Now 37% (down 1ppt) of Indonesians said their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago (the equal lowest figure for this indicator in 2016) compared to 12% (up 1ppt) that said their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

A large majority, 67% (unchanged for the third straight month), of Indonesians expect their family will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year compared to only 4% (unchanged) that expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.

In terms of the Indonesian economy now 81% (down 2ppts) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ financially during the next 12 months and 18% (up 2ppts) say we’ll have ‘bad times’ financially.

Additionally, looking at the longer-term, 90% (down 2ppts) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ economically over the next five years and just 10% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’ economically.

Well over half, 57% (unchanged) of Indonesians, say ‘now is a good time to buy’ major household items (the equal highest figure for this indicator since March 2015) and 38% (down 2ppts) say ‘now is a bad time to buy’ major household items (the lowest figure for this indicator for nearly two years since November 2014).

Ira Soekirman, Director, Roy Morgan Research Indonesia, says:

“The only explanation for the small dip in confidence is the Ahok drama gathering momentum. With no significant changes in economic circumstances, inflationary pressure or the value of the rupiah, the tension between secular and fundamentalist forces is beginning to make sections of Indonesian society nervous. Despite that, the consumer's wallet remains open".

The monthly Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 2,134 face-to-face interviews conducted throughout Indonesia, not just a handful of cities. The survey includes the Top 22 cities, smaller cities and towns as well as many more villages in the rural hinterland, reflecting all of Indonesia. Men and women aged 14 and over were randomly selected during the month of October 2016.

For further information:

Ira Soekirman: Office +62 21 572 2021 Mobile +62 811165400

Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating - November 2016 - 150.0

Click to view the latest Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Release PDF - October 2016.


Latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Releases

Latest Roy Morgan Indonesian & ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Data Tables

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate. 

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0