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National Party support up again in November as Roy Morgan Government Confidence surges despite series of earthquakes

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 858 electors in November 2016. Of all electors surveyed 6.5% (unchanged) didn’t name a party.
During November support for National rose by 1.5% to 49.5% now clearly ahead of a potential Labour/ Greens alliance 37.5% (down 0.5%). If a New Zealand Election was held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National would be re-elected.

Support for the National partners was up slightly with the Maori Party unchanged at 1.5% while Act NZ was up 0.5% to 1% and United Future was up 0.5% to 0.5%.

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties - Labour’s support was at 23% (down 3.5%) – the lowest support for Labour for over two years, Greens 14.5% (up 3%) and NZ First 8% (down 2%). Of the parties outside Parliament the Internet Party was 0% (down 0.5%), Conservative Party of NZ was 0.5% (up 0.5%), the Mana Party was 0% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Other was 1.5% (unchanged).

The NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has increased strongly to 141pts (up 14.5pts) in November with a high 65% (up 9.5%) of NZ electors saying NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to only 24% (down 5%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. This is the rating’s highest score for nearly two years since January 2015.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“Support for National 49.5% (up 1.5%) has consolidated at nearly half the New Zealand electorate during November as a series of earthquakes struck central parts of New Zealand including the Capital Wellington and parts of the South Island towards Christchurch.

“However, any concerns about a recurrence of the disastrous 2011 Christchurch earthquake have certainly not negatively impacted support for the Government – now at its strongest lead since July. In contrast, the poor performance of Labour in November will be a concern for Opposition Leader Andrew Little heading into an election year with a figurative ‘mountain to climb’. Labour has plunged to support of only 23% (down 3.5%) – Labour’s lowest support since late 2014.

“In addition to the rise in National support both the ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence – now at 127.2 (up 4.3pts) and the New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – now at 141 (up 14.5pts) are at their highest levels since early 2015.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 858 electors in November 2016. Of all electors surveyed 6.5% (unchanged) didn’t name a party.


For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093



Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0