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Baird Government drops behind for first time in NSW while Palaszczuk consolidates lead in Queensland and ALP preferred in Tasmania

The SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premiers was conducted between September 30 – October 2, 2016 with a cross-section of 4,972 Australian electors including 1,306 Victorian electors, 1,045 New South Wales electors, 714 Queensland electors, 665 South Australian electors, 559 Western Australian electors and 367 Tasmanian electors.
In NSW the Baird Government has for the first time lost the two-party preferred lead: ALP 51.5% (up 2% since August) cf. L-NP 48.5% (down 2%) following the controversial decision by Premier Mike Baird to ban greyhound racing form 1 July 2017 – although this decision has now been reversed under intense pressure from the public and many of his partyroom colleagues. Despite his troubles in recent months Baird still holds a narrow lead as ‘Better Premier’: Baird 52.5% (down 3.5%) cf. Luke Foley 47.5% (up 3.5%).

Further north in Queensland Premier Annastacia Palasczcuk has regained the lead on the back of strong support from female Queensland electors with the ALP 52% (up 2%) cf. LNP 48% (down 2%) on a two-party preferred basis. Palaszczukis also preferred as ‘Better Premier’: Palaszczuk 54.5% (down 3.5%) cf. Tim Nicholls 45.5% (up 3.5%).

At the other end of the country in Tasmania there continues to be a disconnect between personal popularity and that of the party. The ALP Opposition 52% (down 2%) leads the Liberal Government 48% (up 2%) on a two-party preferred basis whilst Liberal Premier Will Hodgman 55.5% (down 2%) is still regarded as the ‘Better Premier’ than Opposition Leader Bryan Green 44.5% (up 2%).

This SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention was conducted in early October with a representative cross-section of  4,972 Australian electors.


NEW SOUTH WALES: ALP would win close election

2PP: ALP 51.5% (up 2% since August 19-22, 2016) cf. L-NP 48.5% (down 2%).

Primary vote: L-NP 37% (down 2%), ALP 31.5% (up 1%), Greens 14% (up 1%), One Nation 9% (up 3%), Christian Democrats 3% (up 0.5%) and Independents/ Others 5.5% (down 3.5%).

Better Premier: Premier Mike Baird (Liberal) v Luke Foley (ALP):
Mr. Baird 52.5% (down 3.5%) cf. Mr. Foley 47.5% (up 3.5%); Lead to Mr. Baird 5% (down 7%).

New South Wales real unemployment is now 8.8% (down 0.1% since June – July 2016) and under-employment is 5.9% (down 1.9%). This means total New South Wales unemployment & under-employment is 14.7% (down 2%). (Interviewed August - September 2016).

New South Wales State Election is due to be held in March 2019.


TASMANIA: ALP would win Election

2PP: ALP 52% (down 2% since August 19-22, 2016) cf. Liberals 48% (up 2%). Estimate: 2PP vote is not applicable to the Tasmanian lower house which uses the Hare-Clark proportional voting system.

Primary vote: Liberals 39% (up 1.5%), ALP 33% (down 3%), Greens 16% (up 0.5%), Jacqui Lambie Network 6% (unchanged) and Independents/ Others 6% (up 1%).

Better Premier: Premier Will Hodgman (Liberal) v Bryan Green (ALP):
Mr. Hodgman 55.5% (down 2%) cf. Mr. Green 44.5% (up 2%); Lead to Mr Hodgman 11% (down 4%).

Tasmanian real unemployment is now 11.6% (down 0.6% since May – July 2016) and under-employment is 14.8% (up 3.6%). This means total Tasmanian unemployment & under-employment is 26.4% (up 3%). (Interviewed July - September 2016).

Tasmanian State Election is due to be held before December 31, 2018.


QUEENSLAND: ALP would win election

2PP: ALP 52% (up 2% since August 19-22, 2016) cf. LNP 48% (down 2%). Female electors: ALP 53.5% (up 2.5%) cf. L-NP 46.5% (down 2.5%). Male electors: LNP 50% (down 1.5%) cf. ALP 50% (up 1.5%).

Primary vote electors: ALP 35.5% (down 1%), LNP 33.5% (down 5%), Greens 12% (up 2.5%), One Nation 10.5% (up 2%), Katter’s Australian Party 3.5% (up 1%), Family First 1.5% (up 0.5%), Independents/ Others 3.5% (unchanged). Female electors: ALP 38% (up 1%), LNP 33% (down 4%), Greens 13% (up 2%), One Nation 8.5% (unchanged), Katter’s Australian Party 1.5% (down 0.5%), Family First 1.5% (up 0.5%), Independents/ Others 4.5% (up 1%). Male electors: LNP 34.5% (down 6%), ALP 32.5% (down 3%), One Nation 12.5% (up 4.5%), Greens 10.5% (up 2%), Katter’s Australian Party 5.5% (up 2%), Family First 1% (unchanged), Independents/ Others 3.5% (up 0.5%).

Better Premier: Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk (ALP) v Tim Nicholls (LNP):
Ms. Palaszczuk 54.5% (down 3.5%) cf. Mr. Nicholls 45.5% (up 3.5%); Lead to Ms Palaszczuk 9% (down 7%). Female electors: Ms. Palaszczuk 59% (down 4%) cf. Mr. Nicholls 41% (up 4%). Lead to Ms. Palaszczuk  18% (down 8%). Male electors: Ms. Palaszczuk 50% (down 2.5%) cf. Mr. Nicholls 50% (up 2.5%). Lead to Ms. Palaszczuk 0% (down 5%).

Queensland real unemployment is now 11.3% (down 0.2% since June - July 2016) and under-employment is 9% (down 1.1%). This means total Queensland unemployment & under-employment is 20.3% (down 1.3%). (Interviewed August - September 2016).

Queensland State Election is due to be held in early 2018.


Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:

"Today’s special SMS State Morgan Poll conducted Australia-wide in early October shows New South Wales Premier Mike Baird‘s L-NP Government 48.5% (down 2% since August) now trails the ALP 51.5% (up 2%) on a two-party preferred basis for the first time. Baird’s controversial decision to ban greyhound racing in New South Wales from 1 July 2017 has created a huge backlash which has seen his Government lose considerable support over the past few months.

“The backlash has been felt particularly strongly by the National Party who face a crucial by-election in Orange in mid-November that the Nationals are expected to lose following Baird Government’s decision to ban greyhound racing. New South Wales Nationals Leader Troy Grant has been threatened with the loss of his job if he is unable to convince Baird to reverse his decision. The good news for Grant, and for the Baird Government in general, is that the speculation in recent days suggests Baird is preparing to announce a backdown on his Government’s unilateral decision.

“In addition to the ban on greyhound racing the controversial Sydney lock-out laws have provoked strong protests in recent months and the contentious council amalgamations earlier this year marked the start of the Government’s decline in popularity. However, despite all the pressures on the Baird Government in recent months Mike Baird is still regarded as the ‘Better Premier’ 52.5% (down 3.5%) over Opposition Leader Luke Foley 47.5% (down 3.5%) by NSW electors.

“In the Australian Capital Territory electors look set to once again return a ‘hung Assembly’ with neither the Liberals 40.5% (up 1.6% since the 2012 ACT Election) or the ALP 35.5% (down 3.4%) likely to secure the majority of 13 seats needed in the revamped 25 seat ACT Assembly. The most likely outcome of this Saturday’s election is a continuation of the ALP/ Greens governing coalition.

“There are five seats up for grabs in each of the five ACT electorates and to secure a seat a party must poll a quota of 16.67% of the vote. ACT-wide support for the Greens/ Independent/ Others of 24% (up 1.8%) suggests the Greens are well placed to win the two or three seats that will once again give the party the balance of power. In the now dissolved prior Parliament both major parties won 8 seats with the Greens winning one and siding with the ALP.

“The Queensland Government has increased its support in recent months with the ALP 52% (up 2%) now clearly ahead of the LNP 48% (down 2%) on a two-party preferred basis and Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk 54.5% (down 3.5%) clearly leads Opposition Leader Tim Nicholls 45.5% (up 3.5%) as ‘Better Premier’. However, the biggest development in Queensland is the increase in support for a reinvigorated One Nation – now at 10.5% (up 2%) – and riding high since a successful Federal Election campaign.

“In Tasmania the ALP Opposition 52% (down 2%) holds a small lead over the L-NP Government 48% (up 2%) on a two-party preferred basis although Liberal Premier Will Hodgman 55.5% (down 2%) is still preferred to ALP Opposition Leader Bryan Green 44.5% (up 2%) as ‘Better Premier’. Re-elected Tasmanian Senator Jacqui Lambie’s new party is now polling at 6% in Tasmania.”


For the poll-watchers:

Electors were asked: “If a State Election for NSW/ Queensland/ Tasmania were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?” Electors were then asked: “Thinking of (Premier) and (Opposition Leader). In your opinion, who would make the better Premier?”

The SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premiers was conducted between September 30 – October 2, 2016 with a cross-section of 4,972 Australian electors including 1,306 Victorian electors, 1,045 New South Wales electors, 714 Queensland electors, 665 South Australian electors, 559 Western Australian electors and 367 Tasmanian electors.


For further information:

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