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New car market climbs higher in first half of 2016

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia), January 2002 – June 2016, average quarterly sample n=13,382 Australians 14+ rolling monthly

The number of Australians who intend to buy a new car within the next four years has been steadily climbing over the past six months, with a total of 100,000 more car-buyers now in the market than there were at the end of 2015.

Near-term intention has also risen, adding 60,000 more Australians on the look-out a new car in the next 12 months compared with six months ago. 

New car buying intentions

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia), January 2002 – June 2016, average quarterly sample n=13,382 Australians 14+ rolling monthly

Jordan Pakes, Industry Director – Automotive, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“With sales over the first six months of 2016 hitting another all-time record and with private short-term purchase intentions also on the rise, it looks like 2016 is on track to eclipse the 2015 sales record of 1,155,408 according to VFACTS.

“When looking at those consumers after a new car before the end of 2016, overall brand consideration for Toyota remains on top – with 74,000 potential private buyers considering a new Toyota. This is only marginally ahead of second place Mazda on 70,000, with both brands comfortable ahead of Ford, Hyundai & Holden battling it out for 3rd, 4th & 5th place.

“Another brand looking to have a strong finish to 2016 is Honda – with 26,000 potential buyers considering a new Honda, up from 19,000 12 months ago. Much of Honda’s recent gains can be attributed to the recently launched all new Civic small car.”

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Roy Morgan is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices throughout Australia, as well as in Indonesia, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2