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Melbourne’s Batman set to turn Green at Federal Election

Roy Morgan interviewed 6,283 Australian electors aged 18+ across the 20 electorates between January and June 11/12, 2016 – interviewing approximately 310 electors in each of the 20 seats. Full results in the twenty seats are available in the tables below.

Although a lot can happen between now and election day the Greens look set to grab two Inner Melbourne seats at next month’s Federal Election. After a disappointing 2013 Federal Election the Greens are standing candidates in all 150 Lower House seats.

Roy Morgan’s 2016 seat-by-seat analysis of the Green’s 20 best performing electorates at the 2013 Federal Election shows the Greens will win the Inner Melbourne electorate of Batman from the incumbent David Feeney (ALP) and the Greens one sitting Member, Adam Bandt, will retain his seat of Melbourne.

Roy Morgan interviewed 6,283 Australian electors aged 18+ across the 20 electorates between January and June 11/12, 2016 – interviewing approximately 310 electors in each of the 20 seats. Full results in the twenty seats are available in the tables below.

Roy Morgan polling shows that no Liberal seats are in danger of being won by the Greens.

Of the doubtful Labor seats it appears the Victorian seat of Wills has been saved following the ALP’s preference swapping deal with the Liberal Party. In a seat being targeted by the Greens – the electorate of Grayndler in Sydney held by Labor’s Anthony Albanese, voting is similar to the 2013 election. His primary vote was in the high 40s in 2013 and the Greens were outpolled by the Liberals. Albanese is likely to retain his seat.

In Melbourne Ports in 2013, Labor’s Michael Danby was out voted by the Liberals but retained the seat because of Greens preferences. A switch in primary votes between Labor and the Greens could see the seat fall to the Greens although the ALP (33%) retains a significant primary vote lead over the Greens (26%) in Melbourne Ports.

Voting intention:
Top 10 Greens seats: Melbourne (VIC), Batman (VIC), Wills (VIC), Gellibrand (VIC), Richmond (NSW), Melbourne Ports (VIC), Sydney (NSW), Fraser (ACT), Grayndler (NSW), Fremantle (WA).

  • Melbourne (VIC): Greens (40.5%); ALP (34.5%); L-NP (18.5%); Others (6.5%). Greens held;
  • Batman (VIC): Greens (40%); ALP (34.5%); L-NP (17%); Others (8.5%). ALP held;
  • Wills (VIC): ALP (34.5%); Greens (34.5%); L-NP (22%); Others (9%). ALP held;
  • Gellibrand (VIC): ALP (40.5%); Greens (30%); L-NP (22.5%); Others (7%). ALP held;
  • Richmond (NSW): ALP (31.0%); L-NP (28.5%); Greens (27%); Others (13.5%). ALP held;
  • Melbourne Ports (VIC): ALP (33%); L-NP (31%); Greens (26%); Others (10%). ALP held;
  • Sydney (NSW): ALP (40%); L-NP (26.5%); Greens (24.5%); Others (9%). ALP held;
  • Fraser (ACT): ALP (33.5%); L-NP (32.5%); Greens (24.5%); Others (9.5%). ALP held;
  • Grayndler (NSW): ALP (39.5%); L-NP (24.5%); Greens (24%); Others (12%). ALP held;
  • Fremantle (WA): L-NP (38%); ALP (37%); Greens (22%); Others (3%). ALP held.


NSW Seats

Grayndler – held by Anthony Albanese (ALP)

2013 Federal
Election – House

2013 Federal Election – Senate

2016 Voting Intention

Change

%

%

%

%

L-NP

24.7

19.0

24.5

-0.2

ALP

47.2

37.5

39.5

-7.7

Greens

23.0

23.9

24.0

+1.0

Others

5.1

19.6

12.0

+6.9

TOTAL

100

100

100

Sydney – held by Tanya Plibersek (ALP)

2013 Federal
Election – House

2013 Federal Election – Senate

2016 Voting Intention

Change

%

%

%

%

L-NP

30.5

22.8

26.5

-4.0

ALP

46.0

33.1

40.0

-6.0

Greens

17.3

23.6

24.5

+7.2

Others

6.2

20.5

9.0

+2.8

TOTAL

100

100

100

Richmond – held by Justine Elliot (ALP)

2013 Federal
Election – House

2013 Federal Election – Senate

2016 Voting Intention

Change

%

%

%

%

L-NP

37.6

30.1

28.5

-9.1

ALP

33.5

28.8

31.0

-2.5

Greens

17.7

16.7

27.0

+9.3

Others

11.2

24.4

13.5

+2.3

TOTAL

100

100

100

North Sydney – held by Trent Zimmerman (Liberal)

2013 Federal
Election – House

2013 Federal Election – Senate

2016 Voting Intention

Change

%

%

%

%

L-NP

61.0

48.2

45.3

57.5

-3.5

ALP

20.0

-

20.5

21.5

+1.5

Greens

15.4

15.7

14.6

12.5

-2.9

Others

3.6

36.1

19.6

8.5

+4.9

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

Warringah – held by Tony Abbott (Liberal)

2013 Federal
Election – House

2013 Federal Election – Senate

2016 Voting Intention

Change

%

%

%

%

L-NP

60.9

46.7

53.0

-7.9

ALP

19.3

17.3

22.0

+2.7

Greens

15.5

14.6

15.5

0.0

Others

4.3

21.4

9.5

+5.2

TOTAL

100

100

100

Wentworth – held by Malcolm Turnbull (Liberal)

2013 Federal
Election – House

2013 Federal Election – Senate

2016 Voting Intention

Change

%

%

%

%

L-NP

63.3

42.1

41.5

-21.8

ALP

19.4

20.1

27.5

+8.1

Greens

14.6

17.5

22.0

+7.4

Others

2.7

20.3

9.0

+6.3

TOTAL

100

100

100


Victorian Seats

Melbourne – held by Adam Bandt (Greens)

2013 Federal
Election – House

2013 Federal Election – Senate

2016 Voting Intention

Change

%

%

%

%

L-NP

22.8

24.9

18.5

-4.3

ALP

26.6

29.4

34.5

+7.9

Greens

42.6

34.4

40.5

-2.1

Others

8.0

11.3

6.5

-1.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

Batman – held by David Feeney (ALP)

2013 Federal
Election – House

2013 Federal Election – Senate

2016 Voting Intention

Change

%

%

%

%

L-NP

22.5

22.3

17.0

-5.5

ALP

41.3

39.2

34.5

-6.8

Greens

26.4

24.4

40.0

+13.6

Others

9.8

14.1

8.5

-1.3

TOTAL

100

100

100

Gellibrand – held by Tim Watts (ALP)

2013 Federal
Election – House

2013 Federal Election – Senate

2016 Voting Intention

Change

%

%

%

%

L-NP

26.7

25.4

22.5

-4.2

ALP

46.0

42.0

40.5

-5.5

Greens

16.7

16.3

30.0

+13.3

Others

10.6

16.3

7.0

-3.6

TOTAL

100

100

100

Melbourne Ports – held by Michael Danby (ALP)

2013 Federal
Election – House

2013 Federal Election – Senate

2016 Voting Intention

Change

%

%

%

%

L-NP

41.1

41.7

31.0

-10.1

ALP

31.7

25.9

33.0

+1.3

Greens

20.2

20.8

26.0

+5.8

Others

7.0

11.6

10.0

+3.0

TOTAL

100

100

100

Wills (ALP) – No sitting member

2013 Federal
Election – House

2013 Federal Election – Senate

2016 Voting Intention

Change

%

%

%

%

L-NP

22.8

23.9

22.0

-0.8

ALP

45.1

38.8

34.5

-10.6

Greens

22.2

22.0

34.5

+12.3

Others

9.9

15.3

9.0

-0.9

TOTAL

100

100

100

Higgins – held by Kelly O’Dwyer (Liberal)

2013 Federal
Election – House

2013 Federal Election – Senate

2016 Voting Intention

Change

%

%

%

%

L-NP

54.4

49.8

51.5

-2.9

ALP

24.1

21.8

19.5

-4.6

Greens

16.8

17.1

21.0

+4.2

Others

4.7

11.3

8.0

+3.3

TOTAL

100

100

100

Kooyong – held by Josh Frydenberg (Liberal)

2013 Federal
Election – House

2013 Federal Election – Senate

2016 Voting Intention

Change

%

%

%

%

L-NP

55.7

51.2

55.5

-0.2

ALP

22.4

20.6

19.0

-3.4

Greens

16.6

17.1

14.0

-2.6

Others

5.3

11.1

11.5

+6.2

TOTAL

100

100

100


Queensland Seats

Brisbane (LNP) – No sitting member

2013 Federal
Election – House

2013 Federal Election – Senate

2016 Voting Intention

Change

%

%

%

%

L-NP

48.0

44.6

44.5

-3.5

ALP

30.1

26.5

21.0

-9.1

Greens

14.3

14.9

17.5

+3.2

Others

7.6

14.0

17.0

+9.4

TOTAL

100

100

100

Ryan – held by Jane Prentice (LNP)

2013 Federal
Election – House

2013 Federal Election – Senate

2016 Voting Intention

Change

%

%

%

%

L-NP

51.7

47.3

44.5

-7.2

ALP

25.5

23.6

27.5

+2.0

Greens

14.4

14.0

19.0

+4.6

Others

8.4

15.1

9.0

         +0.6

TOTAL

100

100

100


West Australian Seats

Curtin – held by Julie Bishop (Liberal)

2013 Federal
Election – House

2013 Federal Election – Senate

2016 Voting Intention

Change

%

%

%

%

L-NP

62.1

56.1

49.0

-13.1

ALP

17.9

15.8

22.0

+4.1

Greens

15.3

15.7

18.0

+2.7

Others

4.7

12.4

         11.0

+6.3

TOTAL

100

100

100

Fremantle (ALP) – No sitting member

2013 Federal
Election – House

2013 Federal Election – Senate

2016 Voting Intention

Change

%

%

%

%

L-NP

38.1

35.5

38.0

-0.1

ALP

40.8

32.8

37.0

-3.8

Greens

11.9

14.3

22.0

+10.1

Others

9.2

17.4

3.0

-6.2

TOTAL

100

100

100


ACT Seats

Canberra – held by Gai Brodtmann (ALP)

2013 Federal
Election – House

2013 Federal Election – Senate

2016 Voting Intention

Change

%

%

%

%

L-NP

37.9

35.5

37.5

-0.4

ALP

41.1

33.6

35.0

-6.1

Greens

12.7

17.4

16.5

+3.8

Others

8.3

13.5

11.0

+2.7

TOTAL

100

100

100

Fraser – held by Andrew Leigh (ALP)

2013 Federal
Election – House

2013 Federal Election – Senate

2016 Voting Intention

Change

%

%

%

%

L-NP

31.6

30.1

32.5

+0.9

ALP

44.7

35.2

33.5

-11.2

Greens

14.1

21.0

24.5

+10.4

Others

9.6

13.7

9.5

-0.1

TOTAL

100

100

100


Tasmanian Seat

Franklin – held by Julie Collins (ALP)

2013 Federal
Election – House

2013 Federal Election – Senate

2016 Voting Intention

Change

%

%

%

%

L-NP

38.7

36.2

38.5

-0.2

ALP

39.9

34.0

33.0

-6.9

Greens

12.2

14.5

14.5

+2.3

Others

9.2

15.3

14.0

+4.8

TOTAL

100

100

100

 

For further information:

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Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093