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National (45.5%) regains lead over Labour/ Greens (44%) after Finance Minister Bill English delivers sixth Budget and projects a Budget surplus this year of $372 million – the first NZ Budget surplus since 2008

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 873 electors from May 5-18, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a gain in support for National (45.5%, up 3%) now back ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance (44%, down 1.5%).

Support for Key’s Coalition partners is little changed with the Maori Party 1% (unchanged), ACT NZ (0.5%, unchanged) and United Future 0% (down 0.5%).

Support has fallen for the Opposition with the Labour Party down 0.5% to 30.5%, the Greens down 1% to 13.5%, New Zealand First 6% (unchanged), Mana Party 1% (unchanged). Support for the Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (up 0.5%) and the Internet Party is now at 0.5% (down 1%).

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the result would be too close to call and would largely depend on who New Zealand First decided to support.

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen to 132pts (down 3.5pts) with 60% (down 2%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 28% (up 1.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a rise in support for National (45.5%, up 3%) after Finance Minister Bill English handed down his sixth New Zealand Budget last week projecting a surplus this year of $372 million – the first New Zealand Budget Surplus since John Key was elected as Prime Minister in November 2008.

“Following the scandals of recent weeks, the projected return to surplus is a positive story for the National-led Government which came to power in the middle of the Global Financial Crisis and the double-dip recession which struck New Zealand. The Budget surplus stands as an example of the Government’s commitment to sensible economic management. The Roy Morgan New Zealand unemployment estimates show New Zealand unemployment has fallen from a high of 11.6% in the March Quarter 2011 to 8% for the March Quarter 2014.

“In addition to a return to Budget surplus, English also delivered further good news in the Budget with an assortment of ‘goodies’ including an extension of paid parental leave to 18 weeks in 2016, an increase in the parental tax credit in 2015, free visits to GPs and free prescriptions for all children under the age of 13 from July 2015 and large funding increases for both education (+$858 million over four years) and healthcare (+$1.8 billion over four years).”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 873 electors from May 5-18, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.


Roy Morgan New Zealand Election 2014 Interactive Charts

These interactive charts allow a deeper look at voting patterns in New Zealand over varying timeframes and provide election observers with the ability to pinpoint key turning points for the political parties.

In future weeks we will be adding key demographic variables to the charts including Age, Gender and Regional breakdowns to show which way key demographics are voting and which demographics each party needs to target to maximise their vote at this year’s New Zealand Election – called for September 20, 2014. View interactive New Zealand Election charts here.

Purchase the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Electorate Profiles.

For further information:

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Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

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Michele Levine:

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0