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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence:<BR>The Budget Blues - Confidence Weakens Further

Data collected last weekend (Saturday and Sunday), based on 1,016 face-to-face interviews.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell a further 3.2% to 100.4 in the week ending 18 May, after the 2014-15 Commonwealth Budget was handed down. Consumer Confidence began weakening noticeably four weeks ago when some significant policies were leaked ahead of the Federal Budget’s release and is down a sharp 14% since then; the steepest decline over a four week period since the series became weekly in October 2008.

Respondents’ perceptions of ‘financial situation compared to a year ago’, which is most correlated with households’ spending growth, suggests consumer spending could soften in the near term. This sub-index fell 3% last week and has weakened notably over the past two months. At this stage, ANZ’s bottom line for the household consumption outlook remains that consumer spending will improve this year, although the Budget – due to both the direct and indirect impacts – may weigh on the speed of that recovery.

Interestingly, all other sub-indices fell last week except for perceptions of ‘economic conditions in the next five years’ which rose modestly (+1.0%).

Over a comparable period to May readings of other Australian consumer confidence measures, the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence pulse is down almost 12% m/m. 

Head of Australian Economics (Corporate & Commercial) Justin Fabo said:

“The ANZ-Roy Morgan weekly consumer confidence index weakened further following last week’s release of the much-anticipated Commonwealth Budget. While the Budget revealed some changes to welfare eligibility and taxes which may weigh a little on consumer spending directly over the next few years, the indirect impacts of these announcements on consumer confidence could prove to be more important. ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence has declined a sharp 14% over the past four weeks, suggesting that households could pull back on some spending in the near term.

"The persistence of this fall will, however, be important to the assessment of the consumer spending outlook. We will continue to watch the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating closely in coming weeks.”

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating - May 20, 2014

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating - May 20, 2014

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating - May 20, 2014

Click to view the PDF of the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Weekly Pulse.


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Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.