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Jokowi (37%) clearly the favourite for Presidency in 2014 ahead of Prabowo Subianto (15%) and Aburizal Bakrie (14%)

Finding No. 5319 - This Morgan Poll on Indonesian Presidential and Parliamentary voting intention was conducted in October 2013 with an Indonesian-wide cross-section of 2,985 electors aged 17+. Face-to-face interviews were conducted in all 33 provinces, with effort made to ensure a balanced sample representing the electorate both geographically and demographically. 9% of electors couldn’t say who they support in the Presidential Election and 13% of electors couldn’t say who they support in the Parliamentary Elections.

Governor of Jakarta, Joko Widodo – better known as Jokowi – is the preferred candidate of 37% of Indonesians to succeed Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) as the next President of Indonesia at the Indonesian Presidential Elections scheduled for July 2014. Jokowi is clearly favoured ahead of Prabowo Subianto (15%) and Aburizal Bakrie (14%).

Former President Megawati Sukarnoputri has 6% support, level with Dahlan Iskan (6%), just ahead of Jusuf Kalla (5%), Mahfud MD (3%) and Hatta Rajasa (2%). A further 12% of Indonesians support other candidates – none of whom have more than 1% support and a further 9% can’t say who they support.

Parliamentary Elections

The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) – the part of Jokowi, and also former President Megawati Sukarnoputri – is supported by 24% of Indonesians for the Parliamentary Elections scheduled for April 2014 and is clearly the most favoured party.

This is ahead of former ruling party Golkar (21%) and Partai Demokrat (15%) – the party of current president SBY. Just behind is Partai Gerindra (12%) – the party of prominent Presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto.

Support for other parties is split many ways – PKB (7%), PAN (5%), Partai Hanura (5%), PKS (5%), Partai NasDem (2%), PPP (2%), PBB (1%) and Belum Ada Pilihan (1%) and 13% can’t say who they support.

Debnath Guharoy says:

“As at now, there are clear winners for both polls, for the DPR and the Presidency. Jakarta Governor Jokowi is 22 points ahead of his nearest rival Prabowo Subianto, the kind of margin rarely seen in Presidential races. The 3-point gap between PDI-P and Golkar in the parliamentary poll is noteworthy, signalling the possibility of voter swings in either direction as campaigning picks up tempo.

“It is early days on the campaign trail and there is still time to brand, re-brand and relaunch. It would be a big mistake for any party to either surrender or celebrate at this stage of the race.”

Electors were asked: "If general elections for members of DPR were held now, which party's candidate would you vote for?" And for the presidential poll "Who would you most likely vote for as president in the next general elections?”

Finding No. 5319 - This Morgan Poll on Indonesian Presidential and Parliamentary voting intention was conducted in October 2013 with an Indonesian-wide cross-section of 2,985 electors aged 17+. Face-to-face interviews were conducted in all 33 provinces, with effort made to ensure a balanced sample representing the electorate both geographically and demographically. 9% of electors couldn’t say who they support in the Presidential Election and 13% of electors couldn’t say who they support in the Parliamentary Elections. 

For further information:

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Debnath Guharoy:

+62 21 5297 1562

+62 812 1052 622

Ira Soekirman:

+62 21 5297 1562

+62 811 1654 000


Indonesian Presidential Voting Intention – October 2013

 

 

Voting Intention

OCTOBER 2013

%

Jokowi (Joko Widodo)

37

Prabowo Subianto

15

Aburizal Bakrie

14

Megawati Sukarnoputri

6

Dahlan Iskan

6

Jusuf Kalia

5

Mahfud MD

3

Hatta Rajasa

2

Other*

12

TOTAL

100

*All other candidates asked – Ani Yudhoyono, Surya Paloh, Sri Sultan Hamengkubuwono X, Djoko Suyanto,
Pramono Edhie Wibowo, Gita Wirjawan, Sutiyoso and Sri Mulyani Indrawati got less than 2% of the vote.


Indonesian Parliamentary Voting Intention – October 2013


 

Voting Intention

OCTOBER 2013

%

PDIP

24

Partai Golkar

21

Partai Demokrat

15

Partai Gerindra

12

PKB

7

PAN

5

Partai Hanura

5

PKS

5

Partai NasDem

2

PPP

2

Belum Ada Pilihan

1

PBB

1

TOTAL

100


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0

3,000

±1.8

±1.6

±1.1

±0.8